Supporting Reform’s ‘racist policy’ does not make voters racist, says Rachel Reeves – UK politics live

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Elections guru John Curtice delivers grim prognosis for Labour, saying just attacking Reform UK won't bring recovery

Rowena Mason is the Guardian’s Whitehall editor.

Dire warnings about Labour’s polling predicament were delivered by John Curtice, the polling expert and professor of politics at Strathclyde University, at a Demos fringe this morning.

His core message was:

Labour needs to tell the country what it stands for, what it believes in and link that to how it’s going to get there ... The art of politics is the ability to articulate a synoptic vision which is illustrated through particular policy proposals.

The fascinating thing about where we are at the moment is that [Keir] Starmer hasn’t been able to do it, [Rishi] Sunak couldn’t do it, [Kemi] Badenoch hasn’t been able to do it, [Ed] Davey can’t do it. [Nigel] Farage can do it and maybe [Zack] Polanski can as well.

Curtice’s big warning to Labour was that “you can’t just focus on Reform if you’re going to recover from the situation that you’re in” as Labour is losing so much support to the Lib Dems and Greens as well.

He also highlighted that unhappiness with the economy and the NHS, rather than immigration, was the biggest driver of Labour 2024 voters turning to other parties.

Asked whether there was much of a glimmer of hope in Labour’s polling numbers at the moment, Curtice said he thought the answer was “no”. He said he did not think Reform UK would go away and many of its voters were “beyond the reach of this party”.

He said the one route to a better future for Labour was “if the economy is turned around and waiting lists are brought back down”, as well as rhetoric and reality more closely reflecting each other on the issue of immigration.

On the small boats, he warned Labour to “stop shouting about it” and “don’t repeat the Tory mistake and focus on an issue over which you don’t have complete control”.

On Starmer, Curtice highlighted the prime minister’s record levels of unpopularity and described him as good in times of bad news but “not very good at optimism”.

Lib Dems accuse Reeves of planning '£10bn stealth tax' by extending threshold freeze

The Liberal Democrats have responded to Rachel Reeves’ interview round comments about freezing tax thresholds (see 10am) by saying she is planning a £10bn stealth tax bombshell.

In a statement, Daisy Cooper, the Lib Dem Treasury spokesperson, said:

It looks like the chancellor is preparing to clobber families with another £10bn stealth tax bombshell.

This would be copying the mistakes of the Conservatives and Rishi Sunak’s endless stealth taxes and would drag more people on low incomes into paying income tax for the first time.

The chancellor should be turbocharging the economy with a much more ambitious trade deal with the EU, not choking off growth through years of tax hikes.

In her speech Yvette Cooper said Labour “stands firm in Nato”, and that if necessary it would confront Russian planes in Nato airspace. She said:

If we need to confront planes in Nato airspace without permission, then we will do so, because this party should be very proud that in Ukraine’s greatest time of need, [Ukrainian president Volodymyr] Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people have had no better friends than our country, our government and our prime minister, Keir Starmer.

And she contrasted Labour’s stance with Reform UK’s.

There is a choice – between a Labour foreign policy rooted in our belief that strength at home depends on our partnerships abroad and whatever chaotic right-wing ideology we end up facing at the next election, with politicians who are happy for us to surrender our national interests or slide into isolation …

While we are strengthening the Nato alliance, [Reform UK] trot out Russian propaganda claiming Nato caused the war.

And while we opened our hearts and our homes to Ukrainian children, their policy is to turn them away.

While we do new trade deals underpinned by international law, they want to rip up those rules and lose the jobs and investment we need.

And while we work together to renew Britain, they tour the world seeking every opportunity to run our country down.

Yvette Cooper, the foreign secretary, told the Labour conference that statehood was “the inalienable right of the Palestinian people”.

In her speech this morning, she said:

For many decades, the UK has pledged support for a two-state solution in the Middle East, but only recognised one of those states – until now.

And seven days ago, I stood in the great chamber of the United Nations in New York, beneath the UN symbol of peace, to confirm the historic decision of the United Kingdom to recognise the state of Palestine …

Recognition is the embodiment of our passionate belief that the only path – the only path – to security and lasting peace for Israelis and Palestinians alike is two states living side by side.

But let there be no doubt, there can and will be no role for Hamas terrorists in any future governance of Palestine.

Cooper also aid that the “intolerable suffering must end for children facing starvation while Israeli forces block food at the border, for the hostages and their families in anguish”.

At the Labour conference a delegate from the Jewish Labour Movement said that the “genocide” motion on Gaza did not even mention Hamas. If delegates passed the motion, they would be dishonouring the victims of the 7 October massacre, he said.

'This is genocide', and waiting for court to confirm that 'too late', says Unison's Christine McAnea

At the Labour conference Christine McAnea, the Unison general secretary, proposed the Gaza motion saying genocide is taking place. (See 10.31am.).

The wording of the two motions is available on this Labour document.

McAnea urged delegate to back the second motion, and to oppose the first.

She said:

This is genocide. But if we wait for this to be confirmed by a court, it will be too late, because it’s already happening as we sit here.

Labour activists urged to back motion saying Israel has committed genocide in Gaza

Labour activists at the conference are today proposing a motion saying Israel has committed genocide in Gaza.

The debate this morning will cover foreign affairs, and there are two emergency motions on the Middle East.

As the motions were being drafted last night, there was a row as the Labour leadership pushed for wording in one motion saying “the United Nations independent commission of inquiry found a risk of genocide against Palestinians in Gaza”.

This was seen by activists as a pro-Israel falsehood. The commission did not find “a risk” of genocide; it said genocide was happening.

A second motion, proposed by the unions Unison and Aslef, says commission concluded “Israeli authorities and Israeli security forces have committed the crime of genocide against Palestinians in Gaza”.

Ben Jamal, director of the Palestinian Solidarity Campaign, said that if this motion is passed, it will be a “major defea” for Starmer.

He said:

Trade unions and conference delegates have forced the party to allow a debate and vote on Palestine after dozens of motions were initially blocked.

In the teeth of opposition from the government, trade unions and Labour members will now vote on a motion that accepts the findings of the UN commission of inquiry report, which confirms Israel is committing genocide against the Palestinian people in Gaza, and calls for meaningful action, including a full arms embargo on Israel.

What is happening inside the conference reflects the growing pressure of the solidarity movement – Starmer’s own party share the mounting disgust at Britain’s ongoing complicity in Israel’s crimes and want it to end.

Jackie Baillie tells Burnham to shelve leadership positioning, amid concerns it will harm Labour at Holyrood elections

Severin Carrell is the Guardian’s Scotland editor.

Andy is doing a fantastic job as the mayor of Manchester. I think the people of Manchester need him.

Jackie Baillie, the deputy leader of Scottish Labour, was more direct. At a Fabians fringe meeting, she said:

I have one very clear message for this Labour party conference, and actually, it’s not so much to conference as to the person who calls himself the king of the North. Well, all I would say to him is Manchester needs you. OK? We need to stop this nonsense and we need to focus very much on the elections ahead of us.

Scottish Labour leaders are deeply irritated because Burnham’s interventions feed into the air of instability and crisis around Starmer’s premiership, when Labour faces a very difficult task in unseating the Scottish party in next May’s Scottish parliament elections, as well as the senedd elections in Wales and for English councils.

Reeves suggests big tax rises coming in budget, saying 'world has changed' and pledges made at CBI last year no longer apply

Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, has now finished her media round. Here comments about Reform UK are getting a lot of attention, but that’s not part of her portfolio. Her comments about the economy, and the budget, were probably more significant.

I have covered a lot of what she said already. Here is a summary, with fresh or beefed-up quotes, that provides a more comprehensive account.

Reeves said that it was possible to support a racist policy without being racist. (See 8.09am.) This is intended to counter the Reform UK claim that, when Keir Starmer described its plan to end indefinite leave to remain as racist yesterday, he was also calling the millions of people who support Reform racist. Nigel Faragel, the Reform UK leader, told the Daily Mail:

The prime minister has insulted those who believe mass migration should come to an end. Starmer thinks anybody here on a time-limited visa is entitled to stay in Britain for ever. Labour do not believe in border controls - and think anyone who does is racist.

Reeves in effect abandoned the pledge she made to the CBI last year not to raise taxes on the scale she did last year. In a Q&A at the CBI in November 2024, Reeves at one point said she was “not coming back with more borrowing or more taxes”. The Tories have sometimes taken this as her pledging no further tax increases – a commitment did not repeat. But mostly in the Q&A she was saying she would not need to do “a budget like this ever again”, referring to the 2024 budget that raised taxes by £24bn in 2025-6, or by £41bn by 2029-20. And for months she was happy to stick her statement about not planning 2024-style tax rises again. But today she argued that the world had changed since last November. When the BBC’s Nick Robinson asked her if she would repeat the pledge not to come back with “more borrowing or more taxes”, Reeves replied:

Well, look, I think everyone can see in the last year that the world has changed, and we’re not immune to that change. Whether it is wars in Europe and the Middle East, whether it is increased barriers to trade because of tariffs coming from the United States, whether it is the global cost of borrowing, we’re not immune to any of those things.

In an LBC interview, Reeves said that some of the media comment about tax rises planned for the budget has been “rubbish”. (See 8.27am.) But on ITV’s Good Morning Britain, when asked about a report from ITV’s Robert Peston saying the Treasury assumes taxes will have to rise by £30bn in the budget, she adopted a quite different tone, and did not seriously challenge the figure. (See 8.46am.)

Reeves confirmed that the OBR is reviewing its productivity forecasts for the economy, and admitted that this would have an impact on her plans. She told the Today programme:

We also know that the Office of Budget Responsibility are reviewing the productivity numbers based on the past productivity experience under the last government, and are set to make changes, then we have to respond to those, because it’s very important.

“Respond” was a euphemism. Reeves meant she would have to spend less as a result, as Heather Stewart explained in a story on this last week.

Reeves refused to rule out extending the freeze on income tax thresholds in the budget. She is widely expected to extend the freeze (which means people paying more tax, because the tax-free allowance does not rise with inflation). In an interview on BBC Breakfast, asked to rule this out, Reeves replied: “I’m not going to be able to do that.” This answer gave the impression a further freeze is coming.

Reeves said Labour’s manifesto commitment not to raise VAT still “stands”. Like Keir Starmer yesterday, she said the commitment “stands”, but would not explicitly say she was ruling out raising VAT, and this evasiveness has generated speculation that either Labour is planning to abandon the commitment at the budget, or that is planning some change to VAT that might breach the spirit, if not the letter, of the pledge. (Quite what the pledge means anyway is a matter of debate. The manifesto said the party would not “increase” VAT. This normally taken as referring to the headline rate, but could refer to the scope of VAT; some items get a zero or lower rate.) Reeves did not entirely clear up this confusion, but she said she wanted to protect people from tax increases that would raise the cost of living. She told ITV’s Good Morning Britain.

The manifesto stands and it stands for a reason that working people bore the brunt of the economic mismanagement of the last government and the cost-of-living challenges are still people’s number one biggest concern.

That’s why I’m determined to make working people better off and why I’m determined not to increase those key taxes that working people pay, and that’s why we made those commitments in the manifesto, and that’s why we stand by them.

She said that she wants to move to a situation where the OBR produces just one main economic forecast a year. At the moment it produces two a year (because a law says it has to), and this meant that when it downgraded its growth forecasts ahead of the spending review earlier this year, Reeves had to adjust her plans accordinginly. Many economists argue that it is wrong for the Treasury to have to revise its plans so often according to forecasts that inevitably fluctuate, and Reeves seems to agree. She told Times Radio.

The Monetary Fund have said that we should move to just one major fiscal event a year and I agree with their recommendations. And to be able to do that we do need to change the way that the OBR do their forecasting. Two full forecasts a year make it harder to have that one fiscal event.

So there are different ways you could do it. You could do a shorter term forecast, you could do a forecast that just looks at the changes in the economy over that period of time.

But what I’m trying to achieve here is stability for families, but also stability for businesses, because one criticism that we get and, one criticism which I think was a fair criticism of the previous government, was that policy changed all the time and it was difficult to keep up.

Reeves plays down, but does not deny, report saying Treasury expects tax will have to rise by £30bn in budget

Rachel Reeves is on ITV’s Good Morning Britain, where one of the presenters, Ed Balls, is a Labour former shadow chancellor.

Balls puts it to Reeves that Treasury officials told ITV’s Robert Peston last week that she would need to put up taxes by about £30bn.

Reeves says the final forecasts, which will determine what the final budget figures are, have not yet been provided by the Office for Budget Responsibility. But she does not try to dispute the figure.