Trump is sold on Pak oil. But where's the oil?

The only time oil makes news in Pakistan is because of an increase in already-high fuel prices, like earlier in July, or smuggling from Iran. After selling President Donald Trump a Nobel dream, Pakistan seems to have sold his oil dream. Oil it doesn't have. Otherwise, why would Pakistanis be paying 272 rupees for a litre of petrol?

A day after declaring a 25% import duty and penalty on Indian products, Trump seemed to rub it in by announcing that the US had concluded a deal, whereby Islamabad and Washington would work together to develop Pakistan's "massive oil reserve".

"Who knows, maybe they [Pakistan] will be selling oil to India some day," Trump posted on Truth Social.

The hoax of the "massive oil reserve" owes its origins to former Pakistan PM, Imran Khan.

In March 2019, Imran Khan announced a "possible massive find" offshore. It was touted as "Asia's largest oil and gas reserve".

Hours after Khan's announcement, the Petroleum Division denied it, saying the drill did not yield the desired results, according to a 2024 report in the Karachi-based Dawn newspaper.

The report says that ExxonMobil, ENI, Pakistan Petroleum Limited, and Oil & Gas Development Company Limited drilled beyond 5,500 metres but didn't find oil or gas reserves.

"The drilling work has now been abandoned," an official then told DawnNewsTV.

Forget the imaginary, unproven massive offshore find. Pakistan's proven oil reserves are estimated at approximately353.5 million barrels as of 2016, ranking it 52nd on the list of countries with petroleum in the world.

This is just 0.021% of the global oil reserves.

India, in contrast, which is the world's third-largest crude oil consumer, India, has around 4.9 billion barrels of oil reserves, ranking among the top 25 globally.

That is approximately 0.29% of the world's total oil reserves.

For Pakistan, at current consumption rate, its reserves would cover less than two years without imports.

To make matters even more complicated for Pakistan, most of its oil reserves are in Balochistan, the resource-rich province that has risen in rebellion against the Islamabad-Rawalpindi establishment.

There was widespread anger in Pakistan in July when petrol prices were revised upwards by 5.36 Pakistani rupees a litre to 272.15 PKR a litre, reported news agency ANI. Pakistanis asked why the increase in fuel prices while crude prices in global markets had declined.

Trump gives two hoots to facts and truths. Massage his ego, and sell him a dream, and Trump is all yours.

The Trump family has also fallen for Pakistan's cryptocurrency pitch. That's the crypto dream of a country whose economy survives on the begging bowl.

US total goods trade with Pakistan was estimated at $7.3 billion in 2024, according to a Reuters report.

India-US bilateral trade stands at $129 billion, according to US Trade Representative data.

Though America's need for its lapdog Pakistan is more strategic than for trade, the mention of "massive reserves" of oil in Trump's post only makes one wonder the nature of oil that Islamabad has used for Trump's tel maalish.

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