Oil steadies with market waiting for OPEC+ supply decision

Oil steadied near the lowest level since early June with the focus on how much OPEC+ will increase output quotas this weekend.

Brent crude traded below $67 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate was near $65. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are expected to agree to a fourth monthly major supply increase at a meeting on Sunday, according to a Bloomberg survey, as leader Saudi Arabia continues its bid to reclaim market share.

A 411,000 barrel-a-day quota hike is like this weekend and there will probably be another increase next month, said Robert Rennie, the head of commodity and carbon research at Westpac Banking Corp. “As we move into the third quarter and beyond, we see increasing downside risks” and oil could test $60 a barrel, he said.

Oil lost 9% last quarter in a volatile three months that saw prices drop sharply in April following President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements, surge in June after Israel attacked Iran before erasing gains as hostilities eased. The focus is now returning to supply and demand fundamentals, with potential trade deals and increased OPEC+ production the biggest near-term drivers.

Higher import tariffs are due to restart on July 9 for dozens of top US trading partners. While negotiations are ongoing in a bid to finalize deals after the July 4 holiday, there are signs of snarls with countries including Japan. Trump has threatened fresh levies on the Asian nation, citing its apparent unwillingness to accept US rice imports.

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