Indian Americans turn to Democrats ahead of midterms. Why Trump is losing ground

The US midterm elections scheduled for November 3 will put President Donald Trump's standing to the test as Americans will vote to determine the balance of power in Congress. For Republicans, the elections will be an opportunity to consolidate the gains made under Trump, while Democrats will be looking to capitalise on voter dissatisfaction and regain congressional ground.

Indian American voters could be particularly significant in that contest. The community shifted towards Trump in the 2024 presidential election, which narrowed the Democrats' once sizeable advantage. But a new survey ahead of the midterms shows Indian Americans once again favouring Democratic candidates by a wide margin with widespread disapproval of Trump's performance.

According to the 2026 Asian American Voter Survey, 66 per cent of Indian American voters said they would support Democratic candidates in Senate elections, compared with 18 per cent who backed Republicans. The survey also found that 66 per cent planned to vote for Democrats in House elections, while 22 per cent favoured Republican candidates.

The Democratic advantage among Indian Americans is among the strongest recorded across major Asian American communities. The wider Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) electorate is also leaning towards Democrats, with 60 per cent favouring Democratic Senate candidates compared with 24 per cent for Republicans.

For House elections, 64 per cent of AAPI voters backed Democrats, against 22 per cent for Republicans.

The survey also points to potentially strong turnout among AAPI voters. Around 90 per cent of registered respondents said they planned to vote in the November midterms, up from 84 per cent in 2022 and 86 per cent in 2018.

WHY TRUMP IS LOSING GROUND

Trump's standing among Indian Americans has weakened despite the community's movement towards him in the 2024 election.

A 2026 Indian American Attitudes Survey by the Carnegie Endowment for Peace found that 71 per cent of Indian Americans disapproved of Trump's performance, while only 29 per cent approved.

The dissatisfaction stretches across several areas of Trump's presidency. A majority of Indian Americans surveyed disapproved of his handling of immigration, domestic economic policy, trade, tariffs and sanctions. His approach to US-India relations has also drawn criticism, with the survey finding that 55 per cent of Indian Americans disapproved of Trump's handling of ties with India, compared with 20 per cent who approved.

The figures indicate that Trump's gains among Indian Americans in 2024 may be proving difficult to sustain as voters assess his record in office.

COST OF LIVING TOPS VOTER CONCERNS

Economic issues are playing a major role in shaping the choices of Asian American voters ahead of the midterms. According to the 2026 Asian American Voter Survey, cost of living and inflation are the biggest concerns among AAPI voters, with 90 per cent describing them as very or extremely important. Of those, 59 per cent called the issue extremely important.

Healthcare ranked next, with 82 per cent considering it very or extremely important. Jobs and unemployment and Social Security and Medicare each stood at 80 per cent. Education was cited by 79 per cent of voters, while crime, public safety and war and foreign policy each registered at 78 per cent.

Racism, racial discrimination and hate crimes were important to 73 per cent of respondents, followed by immigration at 68 per cent and abortion and reproductive rights at 61 per cent.

The survey also found that Asian American voters trust Democrats more than Republicans on several of their key concerns. For instance, 44 per cent said Democrats would do a better job handling cost of living and inflation, compared with 18 per cent who said Republicans would perform better.

Trump's difficulties are not limited to Indian Americans. The AAPI survey found that around 70 per cent of Asian American voters viewed Trump unfavourably.

That presents a big challenge for Republicans in attempt to retain and expand support among one of the fastest-growing voting blocs in the US. The electorate is becoming increasingly important in elections. The survey estimates that there will be 16 million eligible AAPI voters in 2026, including 1.6 million newly eligible voters since 2022.

WHY THE INDIAN AMERICAN VOTE MATTERS

The Indian American community has become an increasingly important part of the US electorate. An estimated 5.2 million people in the US identified as Indian in 2023, according to the US Census Bureau. While Indian Americans remain more likely to favour Democrats, their voting behaviour has become less predictable than it was in previous election cycles.

That makes the community an important constituency for both parties ahead of November 3.

For Trump and Republicans, the latest polling points to a clear challenge: the gains made among Indian Americans in 2024 have not translated into a sustained political advantage.

While the numbers offer encouragement for Democrats, but also a warning. Their support remains strong, yet party identification has fallen since 2020. With economic concerns, healthcare, foreign policy, immigration and racism all shaping voter choices, Indian Americans could be weighing a range of issues when they head to the polls.

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