From Border Security To Bay Of Bengal: Why Bangladesh's Election Matters To India | Explained

Last Updated:February 12, 2026, 15:38 IST

As the world waits to see which way Bangladesh votes, India is keeping a hawk eye on the neighbour, which remains strategically, economically & politically crucial to the country

Bangladesh stands at the cusp of a political transformation as it holds its first general election since the 2024 uprising that ended the 15-year-old rule of Sheikh Hasina—now in exile in India and convicted in absentia on serious charges.

As caretaker of the interim government, Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus has pledged a fair handover of power. Yunus has also championed a sweeping democratic reform charter to overhaul what he called a “completely broken" system of government and to prevent a return to one‑party rule.

The February 12 election pits the Bangladesh ist Party (BNP), led by Tarique Rahman, and an Islamist coalition including Jamaat-e-Islami against other groups. The 127 million voters will also decide in a referendum whether to endorse proposals for prime‑ministerial term limits, a new upper house of parliament, stronger presidential powers and greater judicial independence.

As the world waits to see which way Bangladesh votes, India is keeping a hawk eye on the neighbour, which remains strategically, economically, and politically crucial to the country.

News18 takes a look at why India is closely watching the Bangladesh polls.

Strategic Neighbourhood & Stability

To begin with, India and Bangladesh share a land border of over 4,000 kilometres, with significant economic, cultural, and security linkages. In South Asia’s security architecture and economic integration, New Delhi views Dhaka as a key partner. India knows that a credible election and stable government are significant for keeping peace along the border, ensuring cooperation against insurgency, smuggling, and cross-border crime—all issues that affect India’s eastern states.

Trade & Economic Integration

Before the 2024 political crisis, Bangladesh was one of India’s largest trading partners in Asia, with exports worth billions including textiles, tea, electricity, and machinery. The neighbour is also a key pillar in India’s Act East Policy, which involves offering routes to Southeast Asia and alternatives for Indian north-east connectivity, for instance rail/road links and access to Bangladeshi ports.

New Delhi knows that political instability could dampen investor confidence and disrupt supply chains, affecting regional growth, which would impact both India and Bangladesh.

Bilateral Relations In Focus

There’s no denying that under Sheikh Hasina, the India-Bangladesh ties were generally strong on trade, security cooperation, and border management. While there was occasional friction over issues like Teesta water sharing and border extrajudicial killings, the two countries worked as strategic partners and worked towards the betterment of ties.

Though the BNP’s manifesto emphasises strong national interests and seeks improved ties with neighbours, its rhetoric could appear ambiguous towards India. For instance, the manifesto focuses on border security and accusations over “push-backs" and killings that they say must end. According to analysts, whichever party takes power is likely to pursue a pragmatic approach with both India and China, given Bangladesh’s need for investment, trade, and geopolitical balance.

Security Priorities For India

India has consistently sought Dhaka’s cooperation on curbing insurgent groups that use border terrain in the northeast. A friendly or at least cooperative Bangladesh government helps in intelligence sharing and border control, which is crucial for Indian internal security.

Yet another worry for India is its other neighbour China. China has deepened its footprint in Bangladesh since the 2024 political upheaval through infrastructure, investment, and defence ties. China is a major financier and investor in Bangladesh under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), funding infrastructure like ports, power plants, highways, bridges and tunnels. It is also one of Bangladesh’s largest trading partners and arms suppliers, providing weapons, naval vessels and military equipment.

This makes China a very visible external power in Dhaka’s economy and security; not just a business partner but a strategic presence that affects the region’s geopolitics.

Apart from this, Bangladesh sits beside the Bay of Bengal, a maritime region critical to global trade and energy routes. China wants influence here because it gives Beijing alternative access to the Indian Ocean, reducing its reliance on long sea routes like the Strait of Malacca. Ports and infrastructure developed with Chinese participation enhance Beijing’s reach in a region where India traditionally has had stronger influence.

Beijing’s rapid engagement, including defence agreements and potential industrial projects near India’s borders, is watched carefully in Delhi. For India, the strategy is clear—balance the influence. A Dhaka government that tilts closer to Beijing could complicate India’s security calculus, particularly in the Bay of Bengal and broader Indo-Pacific context.

Bangladesh’s political direction also influences how South Asian powers like Pakistan and China engage regionally—whether through defence pacts, economic partnerships, or diplomatic alignments.

Simply put, Bangladesh’s elections are not just domestic political events—they are part of a wider India-China competition for influence in South Asia. India, hence, is watching closely because the outcome can shape the region’s strategic future.

News explainers From Border Security To Bay Of Bengal: Why Bangladesh's Election Matters To India | Explained

Read More