Who stands to benefit as France goes up in flames?

As riots and violence swept France last weekend, far-right leader Marine Le Pen seized the moment to launch a scathing attack on President Emmanuel Macron, blaming him for the chaos. But more than her address, what captured attention was the setting. Le Pen was seen seated behind a desk, with the French flag prominently displayed beside her. It evoked the image of a president addressing the nation.

The optics have raised a pertinent question. With elections just six months away, could the turmoil prove to be an unexpected political windfall for Le Pen and her Rally party? With Macron jetting off on his Middle East visit, Le Pen has cast herself as a "law and order" candidate.

WILL FRANCE PROTESTS BENEFIT LE PEN?

Over the past week, protests that began with a peaceful, student-led agitation over the poor condition of schools have snowballed into a broader movement against the cost of living, inflation and declining public services. The unrest escalated over the weekend, with masked rioters setting buildings on fire, looting shops, and clashing with the police.

While authorities have attributed the violence to economic grievances and radical groups, right-wing figures have linked the chaos to France's immigration policies. The narrative has played into Le Pen's long-standing anti-immigration stance, allowing her to push her law-and-order pitch.

For years, Le Pen, France's perennial leader in waiting, has portrayed the European nation as a country struggling with immigration and rising lawlessness. Amid the present turmoil, Le Pen has tried to position herself as the only leader capable of restoring law and order.

In her address, she blamed the Left and "decades of immigration" for the looting and destruction that followed the protests. However, she did not provide any firm evidence to support her claim that the rioting was led by immigrants. French authorities have not implicated migrants in the violence.

"In six months, the French people will be able to choose a different path - one of authority and restored security," Le Pen said. She has also fuelled right-wing narratives that immigrants, and not the French people, were instigating the protests.

She has sought to cast the unrest as the work of far-left radicals allied with youths residing in the country's poor pockets. Much of France's minority Muslim population resides in these areas. Most of them have immigrant backgrounds.

To buttress her assertions, Le Pen's party has pointed towards a section of protesters spotted carrying Palestinian and Algerian flags.

Experts feel the unrest and the damage it has caused to Macron's centrist party, just ahead of the elections, could eventually propel Le Pen to Elysee Palace - the official residence of the French president.

"It's as if she's at the office, already at the Elysee Palace," a French pollster told The Wall Street Journal, referring to Le Pen's national address.

Even her rivals admit that the turmoil stands to benefit the far-right leader the most. "The unrest benefits the far right... They are circling around the violence like vultures," centre-right MP Nathalie Loiseau said in an interview.

Recent polls show Le Pen is already far ahead of other candidates. A recent Ifop poll showed Le Pen (54%) way ahead of former prime minister Edouard Philippe (46%), one of the strongest candidates looking to carry Macron's centrist torch.

Macron won't be up for re-election next year as the Constitution limits a president to a maximum of two consecutive five-year terms.

THE ECONOMIC TANGLE

The violence has also given Le Pen an opportunity to attack what she has called "Macronist toxic policies" regarding the economy. France's economic mess leaves Macron little wriggle room ahead of the polls.

The fiscal deficits have been above 5% for years, while the country's debt pile is nearly 120% of the GDP. In fact, the situation leaves Macron no spare cash left to buy off protesters, Paul Taylor, a visiting fellow at the European Policy Centre, wrote in an op-ed for The Guardian.

However, the economy is not exactly Le Pen's strong spot. When she first ran against Macron in 2017, with a pledge to pull France out of the euro, it proved to be disastrous. Moreover, her 2025 conviction for misusing European Parliament funds will be fresh in the minds of voters.

Thus, if the French election narrative solely focuses on who can save the economy, delinking it from the security and immigration aspect, Le Pen might have a tough battle on her hands.

Nevertheless, the violence and rioting have given Le Pen a springboard to launch her campaign early.

Peter McPhee, a professor at the University of Melbourne, described the turmoil as a "Christmas present" for Le Pen ahead of the presidential election. Whether McPhee proves right will be known in six months from now.

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