Trade Setup for April 9: Will Nifty sustain above 24,000 after ceasefire led rally?

The Nifty 50 index opened with a sharp gap up of 705 points following the ceasefire announcement in the West Asia conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran. What stood out was not just the strong opening, but the market's ability to sustain and build on those gains through the session.

The index moved steadily higher through the day and closed near its intraday high at 23,997, marking a gain of 3.78%.

The weakness in the rupee also supported the benchmark, helping it remain firm throughout the session.

The Nifty crossed the 24,000 mark intraday for the first time in a month. The ceasefire triggered a broad based rally, with frontline indices rising between 4% and 5%, and all sectoral indices ending in the green.

BSE listed companies added nearly ₹16 lakh crore in market capitalisation during the session.

Encouragingly, over the past four sessions, every intraday dip has been bought into. This marks a clear shift from last month's trend, where rallies were consistently sold.

The change suggests a transition in sentiment from a sell on rise approach to a more constructive buy on dips strategy.

On the sectoral front, rate sensitive sectors led the gains. Nifty Realty and Nifty Auto rose over 6% each and have now recovered nearly 17% and 10%, respectively, from their recent lows, indicating strong buying interest at lower levels.

In contrast, Nifty CPSE was the only sector to close marginally in the red. Among stocks, Shriram Finance and Adani Enterprises were the top gainers, while Coal India and Tech Mahindra ended lower.

Broader markets outperformed the benchmarks, with both midcap and smallcap indices rising over 4% each. Notably, even during the recent 14% correction in the Nifty amid geopolitical tensions, midcap and smallcap indices showed relative resilience.

According to Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities, the overall chart structure remains positive. He said that if the current gap remains unfilled over the next three to four sessions, it could signal a broader rally ahead, with the next upside level seen around 24,500. Immediate support is placed at 23,800.

Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities said immediate resistance is in the 24,150 to 24,200 zone. A sustained move above this could push the Nifty towards 24,400 and then 24,600 in the near term.

On the downside, the 23,850 to 23,800 zone is likely to act as immediate support.

Rupak De of LKP Securities said sentiment is likely to remain positive, with the Nifty potentially moving towards 24,265, a key resistance level where selling pressure may re emerge.

However, he cautioned that any negative developments in the United States Iran truce talks could trigger volatility and weigh on sentiment. He advised investors to remain cautious, as risks could resurface if the situation deteriorates.

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