The nuclear genie is out of the bottle. A mad rush for nukes has begun

Within a year, the US and Israel have struck Iran twice. At the heart of both the conflicts was Iran's ability to build nuclear arms, which both Washington and Jerusalem see as a threat. The ongoing military offensive in Iran, now in its fifth week with no end in sight, has seemingly set free the djinn of a nuclear race across the world.

The strikes on Iran, meant to bring about a regime change and end its nuclear programme, are now making countries, from Europe to East Asia, rethink their N-policy. Many are questioning their reliance on powerful allies and are considering building their own nuclear weapons.

This is a big departure from the post-Cold War order.

Nations that once felt secure under America's nuclear umbrella, are now weighing sovereign options amid America's unpredictability under President Donald Trump.

In Europe, Germany and Poland have engaged more openly with French proposals for extended nuclear guarantees.

In the Asia-Pacific, concerns over proliferation in Japan and South Korea have grown, even as China and Russia expand their arsenals. Japan, a pacifist that is the only country to have been targeted with nuclear bombs, is thinking of nukes itself!

The US itself signalled in November last year its interest in resuming nuclear explosive testing after a 33-year hiatus, driven by Trump's directives for parity with rivals China and Russia.

Late last year, Trump ordered the Pentagon to prepare nuclear tests on an "equal basis" with adversaries, citing Russia's advances with systems like the nuclear-powered Poseidon underwater drone and Burevestnik cruise missile.

Russia dismissed its tests as non-nuclear, but America's move eroded faith in the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT).

WAR IN IRAN HAS CAUSED MORE DISTRUST IN NUCLEAR TREATY

America's campaign in Iran has compounded this erosion even more.

A recent Bloomberg report mentioned that in November itself, the Trump administration advanced a civil nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia. It included a joint declaration that positioned US industry as Riyadh's preferred partner for a multibillion-dollar nuclear energy programme and left open the possibility of some form of uranium enrichment and reprocessing on Saudi soil, subject to additional safeguards.

Saudi officials have long stated they would seek their own nuclear weapons capability if Iran acquired the bomb, making the timing and terms of the deal particularly contentious in the eyes of non-proliferation experts. In September last year, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a defence pact, after which Pakistan said its nuclear weapons were available to the Arab nation if required.

Meanwhile, Turkey, a Nato member, is exploring its own nuclear deterrent, fearing that a stronger Iran could upset the region's balance of power.

Turkey's Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan, had in February warned that Ankara might have to "join the same race" if Iran gets nuclear weapons, while President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long criticised the unfairness of the global nuclear system.

These opinions are driven by doubts over Nato's support, low public trust in allies, and rising domestic backing for nuclear capability. Meanwhile, Trump has rendered Nato useless for all practical purposes.

At the same time, there are developments in East Asia too.

In December 2025, a senior security advisor in Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's office stated that Japan should possess nuclear weapons, citing the deteriorating regional security environment, China's rapid nuclear build-up, threats from Russia, and North Korea's advancing missile programmes.

IS HAVING A NUCLEAR WEAPON A BIG DETERRENT?

The latest offensive against Iran shows how states without a nuclear shield, as seen in the case of Libya and Ukraine, face higher risks of coercion or attack.

Possessing nuclear weapons does not guarantee immunity, but significantly raises the costs of aggression. Nuclear weapons are like having a Doberman at the gate. It might not be let loose, but is present to scare off trespassers.

Experts argue that North Korea, which has a stockpile of nuclear weapons, has largely deterred external intervention for this very reason.

But amid intensifying discussions, IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi has warned of the dangers, saying, "The possible acquisition of such weapons of mass destruction (WMD) is openly discussed, even in countries that have pledged never to possess them. But more nuclear weapons in more countries will not make the world more secure – on the contrary."

"It is more important than ever to uphold the non-proliferation norms that have served the world so well for the past half century," he added.

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists advanced its Doomsday Clock to 85 seconds to midnight, citing the Iran strikes, missile defence initiatives, and the lapse of major arms control agreements like New START.

For the uninitiated, the Doomsday Clock is a symbolic clock that shows how close the world is to a major, human-made disaster, like nuclear war. Midnight means catastrophe.

A recent Bloomberg report showed how the momentum is growing, and how, from the North Atlantic to the West Pacific, governments are debating more publicly than before whether they must get the bomb.

Trump's approach — striking adversaries while floating ideas like sharing sensitive nuclear technology with Saudi Arabia — has fuelled perceptions of selective enforcement.

Critics, including former IAEA inspector Robert Kelley, described the contrast with Iran policy as hypocritical.

Today, over 20 countries possess the technical base in the form of civilian nuclear programmes, industrial capacity, and expertise, to potentially develop weapons quickly.

Only about 25 kg of highly enriched uranium or 8 kg of plutonium is needed for a basic device capable of destroying a small city.

EUROPE'S PUSH FOR AUTONOMY IN NUCLEAR WEAPONS

In Europe, Trump's moves in Iran and the US's own push for nuclear tests have signalled a shift. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz initiated confidential discussions with French President Emmanuel Macron on nuclear deterrence cooperation, with Berlin agreeing to participate in French nuclear exercises.

Macron has emphasised expanding France's role, stating that "a strengthening of our arsenal is indispensable. To be free, one must be feared, and to be feared one must be powerful".

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has also expressed interest in eventual nuclear options and closer ties with Paris, aiming to avoid "zones of differing security".

These steps show unease with outsourced deterrence.

There are increasing calls within the UK as well, including from Opposition figures, to revive domestic missile manufacturing for its submarine force.

Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute of Studies talked about this changing mood. He told Bloomberg, "The zeitgeist is much more pro-nuclear armament now than ever before. If you believe you live in a world of great-power predation where collective security is a sham, it's pretty hard not to think, 'Well, better take a long hard look at the big one'."

EAST ASIA, THE MIDDLE EAST, AND CASCADE RISKS

In South Korea, over 75% of people now back building their own nukes due to North Korea's missile tests and doubts about US protection.

Japan, despite its anti-nuclear history after Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings, is also seeing some leaders discuss the idea. Taiwan has the technical ability to develop such weapons if it chooses.

Experts have warned of a chain reaction. If one country builds nuclear weapons, others might follow, making regions like East Asia and the Middle East far more dangerous.

The Iran conflict has exposed problems in the global system meant to control nuclear weapons.

Upcoming meetings of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which aims to stop the spread of nuclear weapons, are likely to show disagreements, especially with nuclear-armed countries.

Amid the ongoing war, Iranian lawmakers submitted a fast-tracked bill to Parliament calling for withdrawal from the NPT, arguing that the treaty no longer provides any benefits while failing to protect Iran's facilities from attack.

The next NPT Review Conference is scheduled to take place from 27 April to 22 May 2026 in New York.

Many key arms-control treaties have expired or remain unsigned, and countries are still doing limited nuclear-related experiments, making it harder to monitor what's really happening.

At the same time, attacking nuclear sites with conventional weapons makes things more dangerous and unclear, as it blurs the line between a regular war and a nuclear conflict.

WHICH COUNTRIES HAVE NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND DELIVERY SYSTEMS?

Nine countries possess nuclear weapons, with a worldwide inventory of roughly 12,241 warheads as of early 2025, of which about 9,614 are in military stockpiles available for potential use. The five NPT-recognised nuclear powers hold the most advanced and diversified forces.

The US maintains around 3,700 warheads in its active stockpile. Their delivery relies on a nuclear triad: land-based Minuteman III ICBMs (modernising to Sentinel), Trident II SLBMs on Ohio-class submarines (transitioning to Columbia-class), and air-delivered weapons on B-52 and B-2 bombers, with B-21 Raider in development.

Russia holds the largest arsenal, estimated at over 4,300 warheads, delivered via silo and mobile ICBMs (including the Sarmat), Borei-class SLBM submarines, and strategic bombers. It has emphasised exotic second-strike or escalatory systems like Poseidon and Burevestnik.

China's nuclear expansion features DF-41 ICBMs with MIRV capability, JL-3 SLBMs, hypersonic vehicles, and a growing submarine fleet. It adheres to no-first-use but prioritises survivability through mobile and sea-based assets.

France's approximately 290 warheads centre on an independent "force de frappe", with M51 SLBMs on Triomphant-class boats and ASMP-A cruise missiles on Rafale aircraft.

The UK's roughly 225 warheads depend on US-supplied Trident missiles aboard Vanguard submarines, with ongoing discussions about greater autonomy in missile production.

India's forces emphasise Agni-series land-based missiles (including the longer-range Agni-V), aircraft delivery, and emerging sea-based options via Arihant-class submarines with K-15 and K-4 SLBMs.

Pakistan focusses on a mix of short-range Nasr tactical weapons, Shaheen and Babur missiles, and air assets, supported by fissile material production.

Israel maintains deliberate ambiguity with Jericho ballistic missiles, submarine-launched cruise missiles, and aircraft.

North Korea, with 50-60 warheads, has tested ICBMs like the Hwasong series capable of reaching the US, alongside submarine platforms, though reliability and yields remain variable.

Even a fraction of the existing stockpile is enough to bring global destruction by heralding a nuclear winter. And more countries are now actively seeking nuclear arms.

Today, the post-Cold War non-proliferation order stands at its most fragile point in decades. Peaceful nations such as Japan and South Korea, are now seeking nuclear weapons. The genie is out of the bottle with the war raging in the Middle East, uncertainty in DC, and Russia and China boosting their arsenal. And the world is seeing a renewed race for nuclear arms now.

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