Putin's next move isn't peace but escalation in Ukraine: Report

US President Donald Trump's optimism about ending the Ukraine war appears to be running into a hard reality in Moscow. Even as Trump insists a breakthrough is within reach, people close to the Kremlin say Russian President Vladimir Putin is showing little interest in compromise and is instead preparing for a fresh escalation.

According to news agency Reuters, Putin has become even more determined to continue the war after Ukraine stepped up drone attacks on Russian oil refineries, ports and fuel infrastructure. Rather than pushing him towards negotiations, the strikes have reinforced his belief that Russia should press ahead until it secures its military objectives.

Two of the sources told Reuters there is a "high probability" that the conflict will intensify in the coming months.

TRUMP SEES PEACE, PUTIN SEES OPPORTUNITY

The assessment from Moscow comes days after Trump projected confidence that the war could end sooner than many expect.

Following separate phone calls with Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy last week, Trump said the two sides were moving closer to a settlement. He later met Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the NATO summit, where the Ukrainian leader said they discussed fresh ideas to bring peace closer.

Behind the scenes, however, Kremlin insiders paint a very different picture.

One source who regularly meets Putin told Reuters that the Russian leader has "dug in his heels" and remains focused on capturing the remaining Ukrainian-held parts of the Donbas region. The same source said Putin recently dismissed suggestions from advisers who proposed freezing the conflict along the current front line.

Putin believes Russian forces will eventually seize the entire Donbas, even if progress on the battlefield remains slow.

KREMLIN SAYS RUSSIA WILL KEEP FIGHTING

The Kremlin has continued to insist it is open to peace but only on its own terms.

"Russia is ready for a peaceful resolution but has enough capability to act independently and continue the special military operation," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

Ukraine sees little sign that Moscow is preparing to negotiate.

A senior Ukrainian official said intelligence gathered in recent months suggests Russia is preparing new military operations rather than a diplomatic breakthrough. Kyiv also believes Moscow could eventually threaten another European country if the conflict widens.

Russian military commentators have increasingly spoken about expanding the conflict beyond Ukraine. Some have suggested striking NATO-linked targets in the Baltic states or Romania, a move that would dramatically raise the risk of direct confrontation with the Western alliance.

WAR TAKES ITS TOLL

The conflict has become increasingly costly for both sides.

Ukraine's long-range drone attacks have repeatedly hit Russian refineries, ports and fuel storage sites, causing shortages that have affected everyday life inside Russia. While Putin's approval ratings remain relatively high, recent polling suggests public support has slipped to its lowest level since the full-scale invasion began in 2022.

Western governments argue that Ukraine's recent successes have shifted momentum on the battlefield and have renewed calls for tougher sanctions on Moscow.

But according to one Kremlin, the attacks have had the opposite effect on Putin personally.

Instead of encouraging compromise, they have strengthened his determination to respond with greater force.

DONBAS REMAINS THE MAIN PRIZE

Despite years of fighting, Russia has yet to capture the whole of the Donbas region, one of the Kremlin's central war aims.

Russian troops continue to battle through eastern Ukraine, including around the strategic city of Kostiantynivka, although their advances have slowed significantly this year as Ukrainian drones blunt Moscow's numerical advantage.

Putin recently claimed Russian forces had captured the city, but Ukraine denied the assertion.

During a recent call with Trump, the Russian leader reportedly argued that Moscow would eventually take the remaining Ukrainian-controlled parts of Donbas.

One source close to the Kremlin summed up Putin's thinking bluntly.

"He needs some kind of victory," he said, as quoted by Reuters.

- Ends

With inputs from agencies