Once ‘Iron Brothers’, Now Rivals: How Yemen Split Saudi And UAE, And Who Holds The Upper Hand

Last Updated:January 30, 2026, 19:08 IST

The Saudi-UAE split, exposed in Yemen and deepened by new global alliances, raises a defining question: which Gulf power is now stronger?

Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, President of UAE, stands for a photograph with Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, in Riyadh. (Handout via REUTERS)

For more than a decade, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were the axis around which Gulf politics turned. They backed the same regional causes, confronted the same adversaries, and coordinated closely on major security decisions.

In a region defined by shifting alliances, theirs appeared unusually stable — a partnership driven in part by the unusually close rapport between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) and UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MBZ).

That partnership has now cracked open. The split did not happen overnight; it unfolded quietly in policy disputes, then erupted in Yemen, where the two sides eventually backed opposing factions. The rift has since widened into a slow-burning cold war.

Here’s a detailed look at how a once-powerful Gulf bromance unravelled, how Yemen became the defining theatre of the split, how each state is reshaping its alliances, and who appears to hold the upper hand in this emerging contest.

The Saudi-UAE Bromance

MBZ, the older and far more experienced leader, was widely seen as a mentor to MBS during the latter’s rapid rise to power. Between 2015 and 2017, he took the young Saudi prince under his wing, including guiding him through Washington’s political networks, and the two developed what diplomats at the time described as a “mentor–protégé" relationship.

They coordinated the Yemen intervention in 2015, presented a unified front against the Iran-backed Houthis, and jointly led the 2017 blockade of Qatar — driven by the belief that Doha’s support for political Islam, particularly the Muslim Brotherhood, threatened regional stability. Their militaries operated in tandem, their foreign ministries read from the same playbook, and their personal relationship reinforced the perception that the Gulf now moved to a Riyadh–Abu Dhabi rhythm.

For several years, both benefited from this partnership. Saudi Arabia projected new assertiveness under MBS, while the UAE strengthened its standing as a confident and effective regional actor. At that stage, their strategic objectives appeared closely aligned.

But this balance did not hold. Once MBS consolidated power and charted his own assertive path under Vision 2030, and as the UAE expanded its independent footprint across the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa, their ambitions began to overlap. Neither was willing to adjust to the other’s growing assertiveness. That is what shifted a smooth partnership into quiet competition.

When Did The Relationship Break Down?

The turning point was not a single event but a series of strategic clashes that revealed deeper differences.

Project HQ And The Economic Ultimatum

The first rupture came economically. For decades, global companies operated through Dubai even when their biggest contracts were in Saudi Arabia. Riyadh moved to upend this logic.

In 2021, Riyadh signalled that this arrangement would no longer stand. Through what became known as “Project HQ", companies were told they had to shift their regional headquarters to Riyadh by January 2024 or forfeit all Saudi state contracts.

This challenged the very foundation of Dubai’s role as the “gateway" to the Middle East. By 2025, more than 600 multinational firms had complied. The move did not just redirect investment; it symbolised a new Saudi assertiveness — an intention to compete directly with the UAE’s globalised economic model.

Riyadh Air Vs Emirates

Saudi Arabia’s launch of Riyadh Air in 2025 further escalated the rivalry. The airline’s ambition to capture the long-haul transit market, backed by the Public Investment Fund, was widely interpreted as a direct challenge to the UAE’s Emirates. With a strategy centred on aggressive pricing and an advanced long-haul fleet, Riyadh Air positioned itself to erode Dubai’s dominance in global aviation.

Saudi Arabia aimed not just to modernise its airlines but to occupy the very space that made Dubai a global hub.

A Personal Break

By late 2025, tensions were no longer masked. In a rare off-record briefing in Riyadh, MBS reportedly accused the UAE of betrayal, a remark that signalled how far the relationship had deteriorated.

Why Yemen Became The Line Of Control In The Rivalry

Yemen, long regarded by both states as a shared security concern, became the most visible site of their divergence.

After years of fighting the Houthis, the two states began backing different factions within the anti-Houthi coalition. Saudi Arabia supported the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), which favours a unified Yemeni state capable of protecting Saudi Arabia’s southern border and providing access for a potential pipeline to the Arabian Sea.

The UAE backed the Southern Transitional Council (STC), which seeks autonomy for southern Yemen and control over key ports such as Aden and Mukalla. For Abu Dhabi, influence over maritime routes and the Bab al-Mandeb strait is strategically central to its model as a port-driven power.

The clash reached its peak in late 2025. The STC launched an offensive into Hadramout, the province that contains most of Yemen’s oil reserves and borders Saudi Arabia. Riyadh declared the move a threat to its national security. Days later, Saudi jets struck a shipment of weapons at Mukalla that it said was sent by the UAE for STC forces.

The UAE denied that it was undermining Saudi interests but pulled back its remaining counter-terrorism units. Saudi-backed forces later reclaimed areas seized by the STC.

Saudi Arabia’s New Axis: Pakistan And Turkey

As the rivalry deepened, Saudi Arabia sought new strategic partners capable of providing manpower, defence cooperation, and technological support.

The most consequential move was the Saudi-Pakistan defence pact of September 2025, described by some analysts as a major security alignment. The agreement echoed the language of collective defence, effectively signalling that aggression against one would be treated as aggression against both. While officially framed as mutual defence cooperation, it underscored Riyadh’s growing reliance on Pakistan as a military partner at a time of heightened regional insecurity.

Turkey has also become a crucial part of this emerging axis. After years of tension, relations warmed sharply as Ankara offered what Washington would not: high-end drones with generous technology-transfer terms. Saudi Arabia’s purchase of the Bayraktar Akıncı — and the agreement for local production — gave the Kingdom long-range, high-altitude unmanned strike capabilities that it had previously lacked.

This development shifted regional drone dynamics. While the UAE has long invested in Chinese and US-made systems for precision strikes, the Saudi–Turkey partnership enables Riyadh to field platforms capable of deeper reach and heavier payloads.

The UAE’s Strategic Bet On India And Israel

The UAE, facing demographic constraints and prioritising technology-driven security, is constructing a different kind of bloc.

Its most significant recent partnership is with India. MBZ’s visit to New Delhi in January 2026 resulted in agreements on cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, and the deployment of Indian-built small modular reactors under the proposed “SHANTI" cooperation framework. The UAE is also exploring Indian weapons systems, including interest in BrahMos and Akash platforms, as part of a diversification strategy that reduces dependence on Western suppliers whose deliveries often come with political strings attached.

India also offers the UAE deeper advantages: a large, embedded high-skill diaspora, growing defence-technology capacity, and a stable, non-ideological partner not entangled in Gulf rivalries.

Since normalising ties in 2020, the UAE has also tapped into Israeli expertise in missile defence, cyber operations, surveillance technology, and unmanned systems — capabilities that strengthen its preference for precision deterrence over mass mobilisation.

Saudi Vs UAE: Who Holds The Upper Hand Militarily?

When measured purely by military size and firepower, Saudi Arabia has a clear advantage.

Personnel and Budget

Saudi Arabia fields around 257,000 active military personnel and spends roughly $75 billion annually on defence. The UAE’s active force is about 65,000, with a defence budget of approximately $23 billion.

Ground Forces

Riyadh operates more than 1,085 tanks, over 22,000 armoured vehicles and more than 1,000 artillery systems. In contrast, the UAE has about 354 tanks, over 8,000 armoured vehicles, and 200+ artillery systems.

Naval Power

Saudi Arabia’s navy includes seven frigates, 10 corvettes, and three mine warfare vessels, while the UAE operates 11 corvettes and 2 mine warfare vessels.

Air Power

Saudi Arabia has a significantly larger air force: more than 900 aircraft, including advanced F-15s and Typhoons. The UAE’s air fleet, while modern, is smaller, with around 565 aircraft, including F-16s and Mirages.

Missile and Drone Capabilities

Saudi Arabia reportedly possesses ballistic missiles with ranges of up to 3,000 km (DF-3A) and 2,000 km (DF-21). The UAE is believed to have land-attack cruise missiles with ranges of around 1,000 km.

Broadly, Saudi Arabia has numerical superiority, while the UAE prioritises precision, cyber capabilities, and agile deployment.

How They Compare Economically

The UAE has long been the Middle East’s premier financial hub, anchored by globally connected cities, a favourable tax regime, and a multicultural environment that attracts expatriate talent.

Saudi Arabia, recognising the limitations of an oil-dependent model, launched Vision 2030 to diversify its economy and compete with the UAE for investment, talent, and global connectivity. Project HQ was part of this strategy, a direct bid to pull multinational companies from Dubai to Riyadh.

Both states are also competing in the emerging artificial intelligence and technology sectors, investing in state-backed tech firms and racing to secure advanced chips from the US.

Energy remains a major arena of divergence. Saudi Arabia prefers tighter production and higher prices to fund its megaprojects, while the UAE wants to increase output to monetise reserves quickly. While both remain aligned in OPEC on paper, policy disagreements over production baselines and quotas have grown sharper.

How Their Societies And Values Diverge

The UAE is highly multicultural, with expatriates forming the majority. English is widely used in business and education, and major cities are socially liberal by regional standards. Dress codes are relaxed, and global cultural influences shape daily life.

Saudi Arabia, while undergoing rapid change under MBS, remains more traditional. Dress norms are conservative, Arabic dominates public life, and expatriates are less integrated into the social fabric. Although reforms have opened entertainment and eased some restrictions on women, the social environment remains distinct from the UAE’s cosmopolitan model.

These differences shape their competition: the UAE markets itself as an open, innovation-driven hub, while Saudi Arabia leverages its scale, resources, and religious centrality.

The Bottom Line

The once-solid Saudi–UAE partnership has become a rivalry unfolding across multiple fronts. Yemen brought underlying tensions to the surface, but the split reflects deeper disagreements — economic, political, strategic, and cultural.

As both states expand their partnerships — Saudi Arabia tilting toward Pakistan and Turkey, and the UAE deepening cooperation with India — the Gulf’s political landscape is being redefined. The cold war between these former “iron brothers" may be slow-burning, but its consequences will shape the region for years to come.

News explainers Once ‘Iron Brothers’, Now Rivals: How Yemen Split Saudi And UAE, And Who Holds The Upper Hand

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