Oil spike temporary, rupee could hit 83 as Fed cuts rates: Kunal Shah

Kunal Shah, Head of Commodities at Nirmal Bang, said current oil price movements are being driven more by geopolitical concerns than fundamentals. "It's more to do with US President Donald Trump indicating a 10-day window to Russia to make a deal on Ukraine," Shah said, adding that if India and China continue buying oil from Russia, they could face "additional sanctions and tariffs."

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He noted that oil markets are reacting to this uncertainty. "This is a fear-driven rally," he said. Brent crude could reach $75 per barrel and WTI may touch $72 per barrel in the near term, he added. Prices are expected to remain elevated unless there’s a ceasefire or easing of tensions, in which case a sharp correction could follow.

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On the Indian rupee, Shah said he expects recent depreciation to be temporary. "The fundamental trend of the US dollar is on the downside," he said, pointing to rising US debt levels. He expects rupee to strengthen to around 85 and possibly 83 over the coming months, with the current weakness capped at about 50 paisa more. He also forecast a 150-basis-point rate cut from the US Federal Reserve over the next six to eight months, which could support the rupee’s recovery.

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On gold and silver, Shah highlighted that prices have been range-bound in recent months, with gold trading between $3,300 and $3,450 per ounce. However, the market is now focused on the outcome of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting. “If the Fed adopts a dovish stance, it can be positive for gold and silver both,” he said. He expects gold to move toward $3,450 per ounce and silver toward $40 per ounce if today’s commentary signals easing.

Watch the interview in the accompanying video