Oil jumps on supply fears, but rising output cools rally

Crude oil prices surged sharply, driven by escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and tightening global inventories. Prices rose 4% overnight, gained 8% over the past week, and are up 85% so far in 2026. However, some cooling is now visible as markets factor in rising supplies from the US, Venezuela, and OPEC+ output hikes. Pipeline flows from Saudi Arabia and the UAE are also supporting supply, while demand concerns and lower energy intensity are capping further upside. Brent crude hovered near $114 per barrel after climbing nearly 6% on Monday.