3 hours ago
Net migration to the UK could rise to about 300,000 by the end of the decade, a leading government adviser has said.
Prof Brian Bell, the chair of the migration advisory committee, said the overall migration figure would jump “in the medium term” from the current level of 204,000 as the numbers of overseas students and workers rose again.
Keir Starmer’s election manifesto pledge is to reduce net migration, as Labour heads towards a general election campaign where immigration is expected to be a major issue.
Bell’s comments also reinforce a prediction by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which suggested last month there could be a rise before the end of the decade.
“I might expect a bit of a bounceback that’s consistent with what the OBR predict in their economic and fiscal outlook. They expect it to return to more like 300,000 in the medium term and I think that’s a reasonable prediction,” Bell said.
Net migration peaked at a record 944,000 in the year to March 2023, due to a surge of foreign workers encouraged to come to the UK by Boris Johnson’s government as the UK emerged from the Covid pandemic, but has fallen sharply since then.
Office for Statistics (ONS) figures last month showed there was a 69% drop, from 649,000, in the number of people immigrating minus the number of people emigrating in the year to June 2025.
Just under 900,000 people immigrated to the UK between July 2024 and June 2025, down more than 400,000 on the year before. At the same time, 693,000 people emigrated from the UK, up by 43,000 on the previous year.
Bell’s comments have emerged as the committee publishes two reports on Wednesday. It also predicted that people allowed to move to the UK to live with their partners will cost the economy £5.6bn over their lifetimes
About 51,000 people entered the UK in 2022-23 as partners under family visas, entitling them to live and work here. More than half were unemployed and it was projected that over the course of their lifetime each individual would have a “net fiscal cost” of £109,000.
The committee has also urged the government “to do more” to halt the abuse of nannies, housekeepers, chauffeurs and personal carers brought into the UK on overseas domestic worker visas. According to the the committee’s annual report: “The scale of exploitation and abuse on the ODW [overseas domestic workers] route is unknown and we do not suggest that all employers are exploitative.
“Nevertheless, we know that abuse and exploitation does occur, and that the route as currently constituted allows employers who wish to behave in this way to operate more or less unchecked.”
It added: “Enforcement on the route is difficult for practical and operational reasons, but more could be done if the government wants to reduce the risks of exploitation.”
Earlier this month, the committee said it had estimated the lifetime fiscal contribution of the cohort of skilled workers who arrived in 2022-23. They are expected to make a net positive contribution of about £47bn to the public finances over their lifetimes.
This estimate is after factoring in the long-term use of public services by migrants who stay and settle in the UK with their families.
