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Oil prices fall sharply after Trump claims war will be over 'very soon'
Callum Jones
Oil prices have tumbled back from the four-year highs they hit on Monday after Donald Trump suggested the US-Israel war on Iran could end “very soon”.
It has been an extraordinary 24 hours in global markets.
This time yesterday, Brent crude, the international benchmark, surged beyond $100 per barrel for the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 – triggering stark sell-offs across leading Asian and European stock indices. Wall Street also started the day under pressure in New York.
Then Trump, who pays close attention to market movements, started talking. The war on Iran as “very complete, pretty much”, the US president claimed in an interview with CBS News.
Brent crude, which climbed as high as $119.50 per barrel on Monday, fell back sharply to settle at $98.96. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 clawed out of the red to finish the day higher.
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One person has died and others been injured from a “blatant” Iranian attack targeting a residential building in Bahrain’s capital, Manama, the country’s interior ministry has said on social media.
The count was preliminary, it said, without specifying the number of injured.
The day so far
Donald Trump described the US-Israeli war on Iran as a “short-term excursion” and said it would end “very soon”, as the assault on Tehran entered its second week. He said the war is “very complete, pretty much” and ahead of schedule, a significant shift from his previous suggestions it could last several weeks. But he also indicated he was not yet declaring the US mission accomplished. “We’ve already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough,” he said. The operation would only end once Tehran no longer has any capacity of weaponry against the US, Israel or any US allies in the region for a long time, he later added. Here’s our report.
Trump twice declined to say whether or not Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei had a target on his back, saying only that he was “disappointed” and thought he was “going to lead to just more of the same problem for the country”. It came after a day of Trump being dismissive of the late ayatollah’s son – saying his selection was a “big mistake” and he was “not happy” about it - and reiterating that he still wants to be involved in the selection of a leader. Israel, meanwhile, has openly vowed to target the new supreme leader.
It comes as large crowds took to the streets in Tehran in a defiant show of support for Khamenei.
Meanwhile, Israel launched its second wave of strikes today against Tehran. The IDF claimed it had started a broad wave of strikes against “terror targets” in the Iranian capital, but it has been hitting critical energy and fuel infrastructure that serves ordinary Iranians.
Israel also pressed its offensive against Hezbollah with raids in the south and airstrikes in Beirut. Israeli attacks on Lebanon have killed 486 people, including at least 83 children, since 2 March, Lebanese state news reported, citing the country’s health ministry. At least 600,000 people have been displaced in Lebanon, sparking fears of a humanitarian catastrophe.
Fresh Iranian missile and drone attacks also targeted Israel, US bases across the Middle East and energy infrastructure in the Gulf.
Oil prices surged by 20% to a four-year high before coming back down below $90 a barrel after Trump’s suggestion the war would end soon. Iran earlier mocked the US over the rocketing oil price, branding its campaign “Operation Epic Mistake”.
British Typhoon jets intercepted drones heading towards Jordan and Bahrain, the UK’s Ministry of Defence said.
Turkey said Nato defences shot down a ballistic missile in its airspace, the second intercepted missile from Iran in a week.
Five female Iranian footballers have been granted humanitarian visas by Australia following an appeal from Donald Trump to Anthony Albanese. Our story is here.
Trump says that once the United States is done with the military operation against Iran, Tehran will no longer have any capacity of weaponry against the US, Israel or any US allies in the region for a long time.
Trump twice declines to say if Iran’s new supreme leader has a target on his back
Asked again if Mojtaba Khamenei has a target on his back, Trump declines a second time:
I don’t know want to say if he does or not, because that would be inappropriate.
Trump 'disappointed' with Iran's new supreme leader and says will 'lead to more of the same problem'
Asked if Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei has a target on his back, Trump says he was “disappointed”.
I was disappointed because we think it’s going to lead to just more of the same problem for the country. So I was disappointed to see their choice.
Asked about his previous comments that he had someone in mind to lead Iran, Trump says:
I like the idea of internal and eternal.
He adds:
I would like to see people that are inside.
They talk about the son of the shah [exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi], they talk about other people. But [he] hasn’t been there in many, many years.
We have a formula that’s been very good so far, and I think it will continue to be good.
Trump is asked if the US will accept any responsibility for the attack on a girls’ primary school in Minab, Iran, after a US Tomahawk hit the naval base next to it.
The US president says:
Well, I haven’t seen it.
He says other countries use Tomahawks and the incident is being investigated.
A reminder that the attack killed 168 people, most of whom were children.
Trump says war on Iran will be over 'very soon'
Asked if he thought the war on Iran would end this week, Trump says: “No, but I think soon. Very soon.”
Donald Trump says he had a “very good call” with Vladimir Putin.
They talked about Ukraine and the “never-ending fight” there, he says.
They also talked about the Middle East. Putin wants to be helpful, he says.
Note: He was also asked if he approves of Iran’s new supreme leader in the first part of this question, which he ignored entirely.
Iran says any Arab and European country that expels US and Israeli envoys will be able to freely use strait of Hormuz
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has said that any Arab or European country that expels Israeli and US ambassadors from its territory will be granted unrestricted passage through the strait of Hormuz starting on Tuesday.
According to Iran’s state broadcaster IRIB, the IRGC said those countries would have the “full right and freedom” to transit the strategic waterway if they sever diplomatic ties with both Israel and the United States.
Hundreds of ships remain anchored on both sides of the strategic waterway as oil and shipping markets watch for any sign that sailings might pick up through the narrow corridor. Roughly a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas typically flows through the strait.
