Jaishankar warns Ukraine and Iran-Gulf conflicts could trigger food crisis

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has warned that the world could face a "major food crisis" in the coming months, alongside existing fertiliser shortages, because of the conflicts in Ukraine and the Iran-Gulf region. He said the combined impact of energy, food, fertiliser and finance pressures was proving "very very stressful" for economies in the Global South.

Speaking at a conversation hosted by Asia Society in New York on Monday, Jaishankar said the two conflicts had dealt a "devastating impact" to Global South economies. He also flagged concerns over oil supplies, rising prices and the wider instability that could follow.

"... this is a big concern for us, which is, if you look at these two conflicts, the Ukraine and now the Iran-Gulf conflict, they've actually had a devastating impact on Global South economies," Jaishankar said. He said there was particular concern about the energy situation as the "market is very tight" and added that if "people play politics with it, that adds to the complications in the market," driving up prices at a time when prices should be stabilised.

"So part of it is actually the security of oil supplies, and part of it is the politics of oil supplies, and they are feeding into each other, and they are creating a double crisis or an aggravated crisis," he said.

On the food situation, Jaishankar said, "We are today looking at a situation where some of the major grain exporters will not be able to send out their shipments, particularly out to the Black Sea." He said the world was also seeing significant fertiliser shortages because key producers are in West Asia and Russia, and their production has been affected.

Combined with climate patterns like a super El Nino, he said, "there is going to be a major food crisis probably in the coming months. So if you have energy as a big crunch, and then food and fertilisers on top of it, and finance because every time there's a conflict, money moves towards safe harbours and away from the Global South, the net result of it has been really very very stressful." He added that policymakers could not say such a situation was unintended.

"Countries should not be so self-centred that you're in your own world and take your decision and say, 'Well, it was not my intention to make your life difficult'." Jaishankar said "sound common sense" should ensure that the basic needs of many countries were not neglected to the point that they were pushed into distress. "And that is a concern that we have," he said.

He said the energy crisis was creating instability. "We have already seen it after the Ukraine war. We saw in our neighbourhood the direct result of that in political instability, and my fear is what is happening in Iran and the Gulf is going to feed, is going to aggravate," he said.

On countries coming under pressure, Jaishankar said some would maintain their independence and autonomy, while others would find it harder to do so. "Some others would find it harder to do so. So those of us who are autonomous, we'd like to see more of us who are autonomous. But it's not a black and white scenario. It would depend on the issue and the stakes involved. There'll be cases where countries would make adjustments. There'll be cases where they would fight back," he said.

Jaishankar's remarks underlined his warning that the conflicts in Ukraine and the Iran-Gulf region were combining to deepen pressure on the Global South through energy supply worries, fertiliser shortages, food risks and financial strain.

With PTI Inputs

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