Israel election turns on October 7 as Netanyahu faces reckoning

As Israel prepares for its first election since Hamas' October 7, 2023 attack, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his opponents have made the events of that day the central issue of their campaigns. Nearly every poster, campaign speech and television debate refers to the attack, which remains fresh in voters' minds three years later.

The election on October 27 is widely being seen as a test of Netanyahu's leadership after the deadliest day in Israel's 78-year history and the wars that followed. His opponents want him to answer for the failures that led to the attack, while his supporters say he was let down by the military establishment and has led Israel through a recovery from its darkest hour.

"October 7 is kind of a framework for the entire political discussion that is going on," said Tamar Hermann, an expert on Israeli public opinion at the Israel Democracy Institute, a Jerusalem think tank. "All of us are post-traumatic in a way." A defeat could bring an end to the career of Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, who will soon turn 77. A victory would mark another comeback in a political career that has lasted three decades.

On the morning of October 7, Hamas militants fired several thousand rockets into Israel, while thousands of militants crossed through holes in the border fence or arrived by boats and motorised paragliders. Around 1,200 people were killed and 251 were taken hostage. Israel responded with a military offensive in Gaza that has killed more than 74,000 Palestinians, according to local health authorities, left the territory in ruins and triggered an ongoing humanitarian crisis. Israel later fought Hezbollah in Lebanon, seized a part of Syria, attacked targets in Yemen and joined the United States in two wars against Iran.

Hundreds of Israelis, mostly young soldiers, have also died, and the violence has touched nearly every household. Netanyahu had promised "total victory", but Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran's theocratic government remain intact. Israel's international standing has fallen sharply, several foreign governments have accused it of genocide, a charge it strongly rejects, and Netanyahu is now wanted by the Criminal Court. After a series of resignations by top security officials, Netanyahu is the only senior figure from October 7 still in office.

Both sides have placed the attack at the centre of the campaign, though for very different reasons. Netanyahu's opponents, drawn from across the political spectrum, call his outgoing coalition "the massacre government", while Netanyahu says he has led a "war of redemption". His main challenger is Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief whose son and nephew were killed in battle in Gaza. Eisenkot and his allies have promised a government of "repair and reconstruction", beginning with an official commission of inquiry into October 7. They have also pledged to end draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men and have accused Netanyahu of undermining democratic institutions.

"The most fateful elections in the history of the State of Israel are between evasion and enlistment," Eisenkot wrote on X. "Between taking responsibility and fleeing from responsibility." Netanyahu has repeatedly rejected demands for a commission of inquiry and has tried to shift blame to security officials. He recently accused former Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar of withholding information before the attack, and Bar has said he will file a defamation lawsuit. Netanyahu has also denied reports in American media that the United Arab Emirates and Egypt warned him before October 7. "Our enemies expected us to collapse," Netanyahu said in a recent address to the United Nations. "Well, we didn't collapse. Instead, we rose and fought like lions."

The attack has also shaped the candidates standing for parliament. Eisenkot's Yashar party includes two parents who lost children on October 7. Netanyahu's Likud party also includes two grieving parents, including the mother of a policeman killed in battle that day whose remains were the last to be returned to Israel under a ceasefire. Another Likud candidate lost both legs while serving in Gaza. The Democrats party is led by retired general Yair Golan, who put on his uniform and went to the southern border to fight on October 7. The centrist Together party includes former general Noam Tibon, who fought militants while rescuing his son's family, and the mother of a soldier killed that day. Other parties have also added people directly affected by the attack.

Organisers of a mass memorial event in Tel Aviv on Wednesday, including relatives of victims, have said they are keeping politics out of the ceremony, but they have not hidden their anger at the leadership. "We will not let anyone evade responsibility," Yonatan Shamriz, whose brother was taken hostage and then mistakenly killed by Israeli soldiers after escaping captivity, said in a radio interview.

There has been little public discussion in Israel about the condition of Palestinians or the situation in Gaza. Israeli leaders have said little about the death toll, the humanitarian crisis or the lack of reconstruction there, focusing instead on the country's trauma over October 7. There is almost no talk of peace negotiations, and even Netanyahu's challengers largely oppose the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel, which remains the preferred solution of the international community. When two Israeli filmmakers released a documentary last month on civilian deaths in Gaza, leaders from across the political spectrum, including Eisenkot, accused them of treason.

Polling points to a close contest between Netanyahu and Eisenkot, with the outcome uncertain. The Israel Democracy Institute says more than 60 per cent of Israelis consider their views on October 7 a central factor in deciding how to vote. Among Jewish voters that figure rises to 68 per cent, while Arab voters are more concerned about a crime wave in their communities. Hermann said that while October 7 matters deeply to voters, it does not mean they will reach the same political choice. "Just because everyone says Oct. 7 is important," she said, "doesn't mean that they will come out with the same conclusion." In the end, the election has turned into a direct contest over responsibility for October 7, the wars that followed and Netanyahu's future.

With PTI Inputs

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