Israel election tests Netanyahu amid October 7 accountability demands

Israel votes on Tuesday in its first election since the events of October 7, 2023, with the contest widely seen as a referendum on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's leadership, news agency Press Trust of India reported.

Security, proposed changes to the judiciary, the secular-religious divide over sharing national responsibilities, ethnicity and the economy are among the main election issues. However, discussions about a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestinian conflict have largely been absent from the campaign.

Opinion polls indicate a close contest between Netanyahu's Likud party and the opposition led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot. Neither side is assured of the parliamentary majority needed to form a government. Former prime minister Naftali Bennett is leading a separate opposition alliance with Yair Lapid.

Netanyahu is seeking to remain in power after three years of war and growing demands for accountability over the October 7 attack. Israel's longest-serving prime minister has resisted calls for an independent state commission to investigate the failures surrounding the assault, which killed around 1,200 people in Israel and led to 251 people being taken hostage in Gaza.

Hundreds of thousands of Israelis have joined demonstrations over the government's handling of the war and demands for accountability. Protesters at a rally in Tel Aviv on Saturday called for a state commission of inquiry into the security failures. Organisers said more than 100,000 people attended.

Lev, a young student at Hebrew University, told PTI that Indians could understand the impact of October 7 through their experience of the November 26, 2008, Mumbai attacks.

“About 166 people were killed in that dastardly attack and it shook India, a country of 1.4 billion, so much that its anniversary every year still sends tremors among Indians. Just put that in proportion and imagine what it can do to a country of about 10 million people that lost 1,200 lives in a span of 48 hours and 251 of its people were taken hostage,” he said.

Major military failures have previously reshaped Israeli politics. After the 1973 Yom Kippur War, the ruling Labour-led Alignment and its allies lost power in 1977 for the first time in 29 years. The result paved the way for Likud's rise under Menachem Begin and greater political representation for Mizrahi Jews.

Mizrahi generally refers to Jews of Middle Eastern and North African heritage, while Ashkenazi refers to Jews with historical roots in Central and Eastern Europe. The distinction has long influenced Israeli politics. Many Mizrahi voters have traditionally supported Likud after expressing grievances over discrimination and unequal treatment.

Some longstanding political loyalties now appear open to challenge. Netanyahu's carefully built image as “Mr Security” has been damaged by the failures before the Hamas assault, while accountability remains central to the campaign. Likud has traditionally received considerable support from Mizrahi and traditional Jewish voters, although several of its prominent leaders, including Netanyahu, have Ashkenazi backgrounds.

Eisenkot, a former chief of staff of the Israel Defence Forces whose family has Moroccan Jewish roots, has emerged as a leading challenger to Netanyahu. His background has also brought ethnicity to the forefront of the campaign.

Yinon Magal, a pro-Netanyahu political commentator, called Eisenkot a “monkey” during a televised discussion. The remark was widely criticised as a racist slur aimed at Eisenkot's Moroccan heritage. Magal said he meant that Eisenkot was being controlled by others, while Netanyahu condemned the comment as inappropriate.

The controversy has revived comparisons with the 1981 election campaign, when entertainer Dudu Topaz used the derogatory term “chah'chahim” for Mizrahi voters associated with Likud. That episode became part of a broader debate over ethnic discrimination and political representation. The latest controversy has similarly raised questions about ethnicity and political identity, though its possible electoral impact remains unclear.

Eisenkot has also drawn sympathy over his personal losses during the war. His son and two nephews were killed while serving in the military during the conflict in Gaza.

Another major election issue is the divide between secular Israelis and the ultra-Orthodox, or Haredi, community over military service. Most Jewish Israeli men must complete compulsory military service, but Haredi men studying in religious seminaries have historically received broad exemptions or deferments.

The prolonged war has increased resentment among sections of the public over the unequal burden of military service. The military has faced staff shortages, while reservists have repeatedly been called up for extended periods. Ultra-Orthodox parties, meanwhile, have sought to retain exemptions for religious seminary students and funding for their institutions.

The dispute has moved beyond social equality and become a practical concern for the military. Israel's Supreme Court ruled in 2024 that blanket exemptions for Haredi men could not continue without a legal basis, and the issue has since strained Netanyahu's coalition.

Haredi leaders say full-time religious study should be protected, while critics argue that the system unfairly burdens those who serve. Opposition parties have used the issue to mobilise support, while Netanyahu has sought to retain the backing of his ultra-Orthodox coalition partners.

An Israel Democracy Institute analysis of voting patterns in the 2022 election found a clear link between religious identity and political preference. It said 74 per cent of secular Jewish voters supported opposition parties, while 97 per cent of Haredi voters backed parties in the coalition camp that later formed Netanyahu's government. The findings show the political significance of religious identity but do not establish how these groups will vote in the current election.

Netanyahu's coalition has also been weakened by disagreements over the military draft and proposed changes to the judiciary. The changes, intended to increase elected politicians' influence over judicial appointments and limit some forms of judicial review, prompted mass protests in 2023. The dispute remains an important source of division, although leadership, security and military service have dominated the campaign.

Calls by Netanyahu for a unity government have faced resistance from centrist and centre-left leaders. Mistrust also persists over the collapse of the 2020 power-sharing agreement with Benny Gantz. Under that agreement, Gantz was due to succeed Netanyahu as prime minister, but the government failed to pass a state budget, leading to an early election before the planned transfer of power.

The economy is another source of pressure. The prolonged conflict has imposed financial and personal costs on households, businesses and reservists. Public funding for ultra-Orthodox institutions has also become part of the broader dispute over how national responsibilities are shared.

US President Donald Trump's endorsement of Netanyahu has added an international dimension to the campaign. Trump publicly backed the Israeli prime minister ahead of the election and again urged Israelis on Sunday to vote for him. The effect of the intervention on voters remains uncertain as Netanyahu faces domestic criticism over the October 7 security failures and the handling of the wars that followed.

Arab citizens, who make up about 21 per cent of Israel's population, could play an important role in the post-election calculations. Pollsters expect Arab voter turnout to rise to around 63 per cent from about 53 per cent in 2022, potentially influencing the balance between the competing political blocs.

The Arab-led Joint List and Ra'am, headed by Mansour Abbas, are contesting separately. The Joint List comprises Hadash, Ta'al and Balad, while Ra'am is an independent Islamist party. Although they are not contesting as a single list, their leaders have sought to increase Arab participation and influence over the formation of the next government.

Whether Arab parties could support an opposition-led government has become an important campaign question. Ra'am previously provided parliamentary support to the Bennett-Lapid government that took office in 2021. Abbas has argued for greater political participation to secure improvements for Arab communities.

The election will therefore be shaped by a close contest over Netanyahu's leadership, demands for accountability after October 7, divisions over military service and the judiciary, economic pressures, ethnic and religious identities, and the level of Arab voter participation. Opinion polls suggest that neither the Likud-led camp nor its opponents can be certain of securing a governing majority.

With PTI Inputs

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