Is Pahalgam Attack The Beginning Of The First Water War Between India And Pakistan?

Last Updated:April 24, 2025, 08:42 IST

Agriculture and hydropower from Indian rivers drive 24 per cent of the neighbour’s GDP, 45 per cent of its employment and more than 60 per cent of its exports

India has very carefully used the word ‘Abeyance’, which keeps the option open for the treaty to be restored if Pakistan stops cross-border terrorism and brings the perpetrators to book. (PTI)

India has announced five major diplomatic steps against Pakistan in the aftermath of the deadly Pahalgam terror attack, the most significant being keeping the Indus Water Treaty ‘in abeyance’, with several experts calling it the beginning of the first water war between the neighbours.

India has very carefully used the word ‘Abeyance’, which keeps the option open for the treaty to be restored if Pakistan stops cross-border terrorism and brings the perpetrators to book.

India’s decision does not mean gates will be closed and no water will flow from either side. Simply put, it is a big step towards regulating water. Till now, the Indus Water Treaty was sacrosanct and April 2025 marks the first time that India has changed the rules of the game.

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Keeping the treaty ‘in abeyance’ also means cooperation mechanisms will not move forward—there will be no free flow of information and data between the two sides, which could have a serious impact on Pakistan’s river management, leading to a major water crisis in the years to come.

Last month, the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) warned Punjab and Sindh— two maor bread baskets in Pakistan—of 35 per cent water shortage in the last leg of the current crop season. The country has experienced an extended dry spell, with rainfall levels falling well below average. The decision of the Indian government could make the situation worse for Pakistan as now, there will be no information and data served to them by the Indian side, which may lead to bad river management.

This is the first major step in the direction of stopping free flow of water to Pakistan. By doing this, India has warned its neighbour that it has two options—either it stops cross-border terrorism and gets the treaty restored or continue with its ways and force India to stop the free flow of water.

Pakistan is one of the world’s driest countries, with an average annual rainfall of about 240MN. It is a single-basin country and its dependence on extreme water resources is 76 per cent. About 90 per cent of Pakistan’s total agricultural production occurs on arable land supported by the Indus Basin irrigation system. Agriculture and hydropower from Indian rivers drive 24 per cent of Pakistan’s GDP, 45 per cent of its employment and more than 60 per cent of its exports.

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The treaty, which protects Pakistan from India’s upstream control of river flows, was signed in 1960 after nine years of negotiations between India and Pakistan with the help of the World Bank, which is also a signatory.

Despite multiple wars and ongoing political tensions between India and Pakistan, the treaty has largely remained intact for over six decades, often cited as a successful example of trans-boundary water management. The treaty’s wording does not provide for a unilateral withdrawal or revocation by either party and this is the reason India has made the smart move of using the word ‘Abeyance’ instead of suspension or revocation. It is expected that Pakistan will knock on the doors of international organisations against the decision, calling it a breach of the treaty.

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