High Costs, Depleting Arms: Pentagon Warns US Missile Stocks May Run Low If Iran War Lasts 10 More Days

Last Updated:March 04, 2026, 09:03 IST

As per reports, Washington is already experiencing shortages of key missile systems, including Tomahawk land-attack missiles and SM-3 interceptors.

The United States, which has entered a “war of its choice", is facing concerns over declining arms and ammunition supplies as the conflict with Iran enters its fifth day. President Donald Trump has indicated the war in West Asia could continue for four to five weeks, and possibly longer.

According to reports from the Pentagon, if US strikes on Iran continue for another 10 days, stocks of critical missiles may run low.

Pentagon warning over depleting weapons

According to a CNN report citing a senior US official, Washington is already experiencing shortages of key missile systems, including Tomahawk land-attack missiles and SM-3 interceptors. The official said a “major uptick" in attacks is expected within the next 24 hours while missile and interceptor reserves continue to fall.

The initial strikes are said to have weakened Iranian defences. The next phase is expected to target Iran’s missile production facilities, unmanned aerial vehicles and naval capabilities.

The Pentagon is also facing shortages of Patriot missiles, partly because Ukrainian air defences have consumed large portions of the stockpile during the four-year war with Russia.

Since Saturday, the US-Israeli offensive has produced significant claimed results, with US Central Command stating that all 11 Iranian vessels in the Gulf of Oman were destroyed.

Trump claimed that 49 Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, were killed. US B-2 stealth bombers also struck hardened ballistic missile facilities overnight on Sunday.

At least six US service members have been killed and 18 seriously wounded since the attacks began.

Iran has responded with drone and missile strikes targeting Gulf countries hosting US military assets.

Which weapons could run low?

Experts told Al Jazeera that interceptor missiles could become critically scarce during an extended conflict. A Wall Street Journal report earlier said Pentagon officials and Joint Chiefs chairman General Dan Caine warned Trump about risks linked to prolonged fighting and shortages of key munitions.

US reserves have already been strained by military aid to Israel and Ukraine. During last year’s war with Iran, the US used 25 per cent of its THAAD interceptors, firing about 150 missiles, and reportedly ran out of ship-borne interceptors.

Advanced precision weapons, including Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAMs), may also face shortages. Experts noted these systems were designed for short, intense conflicts rather than sustained rocket barrages.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Iran’s missile production far exceeds interceptor manufacturing capacity, stating Iran produces more than 100 missiles monthly compared with only six or seven interceptors built each month.

Inventories of SM-3 interceptors are also declining due to slow manufacturing, operations against Yemen’s Houthi militants and earlier confrontations with Iran.

Rising costs of the war

Reports say the first 24 hours of strikes alone cost the US about $779 million. Operating a carrier strike group such as the USS Gerald R Ford costs around $6.5 million per day.

Before the strikes that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other leaders, the US deployed two aircraft carrier strike groups to the Middle East. The pre-strike military build-up is estimated to have cost about $630 million.

If the conflict continues as Trump suggested, total spending could reach $210 billion, according to Kent Smetters of the Penn Wharton Budget Model.

Since October 7, 2023, the US has provided $21.7 billion in military aid to Israel and spent between $9.65 billion and $12.07 billion supporting operations in Yemen, Iran and the wider Middle East, bringing total related spending to between $31.35 billion and $33.77 billion.

On Friday afternoon, Trump said he was dissatisfied with nuclear talks with Iran. Three hours later, he ordered military operations that targeted Iran’s leadership and military commanders.

Iran retaliated by launching missiles and drones at US bases in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq.

Al Jazeera reported that the Pentagon warned Trump an extended conflict could carry risks, including high costs to replenish weapons stocks.

However, Trump later said on Truth Social that US munitions supplies were strong, writing that stockpiles had “never been higher or better" and claiming the United States had a virtually unlimited supply capable of sustaining wars indefinitely.

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