Gold prices near all-time high in India: Should you buy, hold or sell?

Gold prices in India are trading near all-time high level on Friday (August 8), with 24-karat gold reaching ₹1.02 lakh per 10 grams. This rise reflects both global and local factors, including US trade tariffs and expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve.

The surge began after the US imposed tariffs on imports of 1-kg gold bars. A July 31 letter from US Customs and Border Protection, cited by Financial Times, reclassified these bars under a tariff-heavy customs code.

This impacts major exporters like Switzerland and is disrupting global gold pricing and settlements.

As a result, US gold futures climbed 0.9% to an all-time high of $3,534.10 per ounce, while spot gold remained firm with a second weekly gain in sight.

Back home, tensions in trade talks between India and the US, along with a likely 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in October, are pushing domestic gold prices higher.

“Unless trade talks show progress, gold will likely stay strong. Only if prices drop below ₹99,500 per 10 grams, we will see heavy selling. Until then, any dip is a buying opportunity,” said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst, Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities.

He expects gold to stay volatile in the ₹99,500–₹1,03,000 per 10 grams range.

Also Watch: Sabyasachi Ray, Executive Director of the Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council, told CNBC-TV18 that the US aims to become the world’s main gold refiner, which is why gold is part of the 39% tariff on imports from Switzerland.

Global factors fueling the rally

Beyond tariffs, weaker US jobs data last week increased chances of a rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there's a 91% probability of a reduction in September. Lower interest rates make gold more attractive by reducing the opportunity cost of holding it.

“The tariffs are disrupting gold liquidity and global settlements, which is pushing prices higher,” said Brian Lan, Managing Director at GoldSilver Central, Singapore.

Is the rally sustainable?

Motilal Oswal Financial Services has tracked a 200% jump in Indian gold prices since 2019 — from ₹30,000 to over ₹1,00,000 per 10 grams.

According to the firm, the long-term trend remains positive, but further gains will need fresh triggers.

What should buyers do?

With gold near all-time highs, here’s how different buyers can plan (as per experts):

-With Reuters inputs