China was once Trump's target. Now he's turning on the charm for Xi

There was a time when Donald Trump could barely talk about the American economy without talking about China, often with a full-throated attacks on during the US presidential elections and his first term. He blamed Beijing for taking jobs, destroying factories and weakening the middle class. But over time, his approach changed strikingly. Now, the US President is preparing to host Chinese President Xi Jinping at the White House this week, complete with a high-profile welcome and state dinner, which are usually reserved for America's closest allies.

Xi will arrive in Washington for a high-profile visit on Thursday. The two leaders are expected to discuss trade, technology, rare earths and artificial intelligence. However, the striking part is not simply what they will discuss. It is how Trump is talking about Xi.

"He's a great gentleman; we get along great," Trump said this month. "We have a very good trading relationship and, you know, they're a competitor and all of that, but we have a very good relationship with President Xi."

That is a long way from the Trump who once presented China as the main villain in America's economic decline.

So what changed?

WHEN 'AMERICA FIRST' MET CHINA'S LEVERAGE

Trump's first instinct was confrontation, when he returned to office in 2025.

He imposed tariffs. He threatened more. His administration tightened restrictions on Chinese technology and tried to force Beijing to change its economic behaviour.

China did not fold.

Instead, Beijing used one of its biggest advantages -- its control over critical minerals and rare earths -- to push back. The materials are essential to everything from electronics and electric vehicles to defence systems.

The result was not a clear US victory but a negotiation.

"Trump has dramatically shifted his approach to China because his initial attempt to use super-high tariffs and export restrictions was unsuccessful," said Michael Kovrig, a senior adviser at the Crisis Group, as quoted by the Associated Press. "Xi and Trump got into a contest of leverage, and Xi came out on top."

The lesson for Trump was straightforward: China could absorb pressure, retaliate and still remain big player to the global economy.

And that makes diplomacy harder to avoid.

TRUMP DISCOVERED SOMETHING TARIFFS COULDN'T FIX

Trump has continued to insist that the US holds the upper hand in his trade war. But his experience with Beijing has exposed the limits of simply turning up the pressure.

China has been a manufacturing giant. Its companies have expanded into electric vehicles, batteries and other advanced industries. Chinese exports have continued to find buyers around the world.

The trade imbalance between the US and China in goods has declined compared with the same period last year, according to US Census Bureau data. But that has not necessarily translated into a fundamental shift in China's manufacturing power.

US officials have also admitted that Chinese companies may be routing goods through countries such as Vietnam to reduce the impact of American tariffs. In other words, Trump's tariffs have changed some trade flows without removing China's role as a manufacturing powerhouse. That leaves Trump with an awkward reality check that the country he promised to beat is also a country he needs to deal with.

XI HAS SOMETHING TRUMP WANTS

Beijing's leverage is not limited to trade. Rare earths have become one of the clearest examples. China dominates parts of the global supply chain for minerals and processing that are vital to modern industries.

When Beijing restricts access, manufacturers elsewhere can feel the pressure. China is also pushing hard into artificial intelligence, electric vehicles and other technologies that Washington sees as strategically important.

That gives Xi something Trump cannot simply tariff away: leverage over industries that both countries consider crucial to their future economic and national security.

Trump has responded by trying to build alternative supply chains for rare earths while simultaneously pushing the United States to accelerate AI development. He has argued that any slowdown in America's AI race could benefit Beijing.

This is no longer just a fight over Chinese imports arriving at American ports. It is a contest over who controls the technologies and supply chains that will shape the next decade.

THEN THERE ARE TRUMP'S ALLIES

There is another piece of the puzzle -- and it has little to do with China itself. Trump's increasingly combative nature with traditional US allies has complicated efforts to present a united front towards Beijing.

He has repeatedly clashed with European leaders, questioned aspects of NATO and engaged in trade disputes with Canada, which is one of America's closest economic partners.

Kovrig argues that this has created an opening for Beijing.

"He's executing Xi's wedge tactics for him, and along the way, helping Xi to tell a story about China as the more stable and responsible power," Kovrig said. "It's led to a wave of Western leaders visiting Beijing and seeking to stabilize and improve their relations with Xi so they can focus more on dealing with problems Trump is causing them."

That is important because China's biggest strategic advantage may not be any single tariff or technology. It may be the ability to wait while America's relationships with its partners become more complicated.

Trump has always believed personal relationships can unlock deals that bureaucracy cannot. Xi is a natural target for that approach. He and the Chinese President have increasingly used warm terms to describe each other in recent days.

The upcoming visit is expected to carry plenty of symbolism. Trump has prepared for a high-profile welcome and has even spoken about the limitations of the White House's ballroom as he plans for the Chinese leader's visit. There have already been some symbolic gains. The two leaders have maintained direct engagement, while Trump can point to trade discussions and agreements as evidence that his personal approach is producing results.

But symbolism is easier than structural change. China's manufacturing machines have not been dismantled. Its technological ambitions have not slowed. And the two countries remain locked in competition over chips, AI, rare earths and military technology.

WHAT DOES XI BRING TO WASHINGTON?

That is what makes the upcoming meeting more consequential than the state dinner itself.

A handshake is easy. A group photograph is easy. Even a joint statement can be easy. The difficult part is producing something that changes the underlying relationship.

Both countries are using their current trade truce to prepare for a longer contest. China is expanding its military and AI capabilities, while the Trump administration is trying to build alternative sources for rare earths and other critical materials.

Washington also faces questions over China's AI ambitions and accusations that Chinese companies have used US AI models to advance their own systems.

However, even there, the Trump administration has signalled that it does not view every issue through the lens of outright confrontation. Attorney General Todd Blanche said it was "unfair to just label China as a country" as being a "bad actor" on AI.

Asked whether Trump would raise the issue with Xi, Blanche said, "Those two presidents have a great relationship. ... They get along, they make deals together."

For the time being, Trump is testing a different approach to Beijing. Whether it amounts to a lasting change in strategy remains to be seen.

- Ends

With inputs from agencies