Bitcoin near $78,000: Why the rally is losing momentum

Bitcoin was trading around $77,600 on Tuesday (September 15), with the cryptocurrency struggling to sustain its move towards the $80,000 mark as uncertainty over a key US crypto regulation bill weighed on sentiment.

Bloomberg reported that Bitcoin had earlier climbed as high as $79,586 before retreating below $78,000.

The pullback came as optimism faded over the prospects of the US Clarity Act advancing this week. The odds of the bill being signed into law in 2026 had risen above 30% on Polymarket during US trading on Monday, but fell to around 18% early Tuesday (September 15) in Asia, according to Bloomberg.

The Clarity Act, a comprehensive US crypto market-structure bill, has been held up by partisan negotiations for about a year. Senator Mark Warner said Democratic negotiators would send a counteroffer to Republicans ahead of a key procedural vote on Tuesday. The bill needs support from Democrats to clear the Senate's 60-vote threshold for most legislation.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune said progress had been made in recent days but that he was unsure whether Republicans had enough votes to advance the legislation.

The regulatory uncertainty comes as Bitcoin also faces a key macroeconomic trigger this week. The US Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its September policy decision on Wednesday, with markets largely pricing in a 25-basis-point rate hike.

"Bitcoin is trading around the $78,000 mark as markets position for the US Federal Reserve's September 15–16 policy decision," said Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus.com.

He said the Fed's forward guidance could be more important for crypto markets than the rate decision itself if a 25-basis-point move is already reflected in prices.

Subburaj also pointed to tighter macroeconomic conditions, with the US 10-year Treasury yield above 5% and Brent crude around $107 a barrel. Higher yields can reduce liquidity and risk appetite, potentially limiting Bitcoin's near-term upside, he said.

Bitcoin's institutional demand has also become less consistent. According to Subburaj, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded strong inflows earlier in September, including $730.8 million on September 3, but this was followed by several sessions of outflows.

For Indian investors, the rupee is another factor to watch. The rupee closed last week at ₹95.55 against the US dollar, while India's 10-year government bond yield stood at 7.0233%.

"A weaker rupee can cushion the impact of declines in dollar-denominated crypto and bullion prices in INR terms," Subburaj said. However, he added that a weaker rupee also reflects broader imported-inflation risks from elevated crude prices.

For Bitcoin, Subburaj identified $75,500–$76,000 as an important near-term support zone and $80,000–$80,500 as the immediate resistance area. A sustained move above $82,800, he said, would strengthen the bullish structure.

-With Bloomberg inputs