Axis Capital sees H-1B risk as limited, bets on Infosys, Wipro, Mphasis, Hexaware

Manik Taneja, Executive Director for IT Services & Internet at Axis Capital, said Indian IT firms have steadily reduced their reliance on the H-1B visa programme over the past few years.

He noted that between the fiscal year 2015-16 (FY16) and 2016-17 (FY17), the top five IT companies together received 40,000–45,000 visas annually. In the most recent financial year, that number has dropped to below 12,000. “From almost 11–12% of total approvals, the share of the top five companies is now less than 5%,” he said.

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According to Taneja, this decline reflects a shift toward hiring more local staff, sponsoring green cards for employees, and expanding operations in Canada and Mexico. He added that the H-1B risk is “a fairly manageable one, especially after recent policy clarity.

On company-specific impact, Taneja estimated that Tech Mahindra could see an earnings hit of a little over 4% if current visa numbers are maintained, compared with a 1.5–2% impact for most tier-one IT companies. He said Tech Mahindra had about 957 H-1B approvals in the past year, while Persistent Systems had close to 192. For Persistent, this could mean a 7–8% EBITDA impact in the fiscal year 2024-25 (FY25), though he stressed this depends on whether firms keep applying for the same number of visas.

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Beyond visas, he pointed out that the sector faces slowing growth as it matures, with concerns about how the fiscal year 2026-27 (FY27) will play out. Axis Capital remains selective in its picks, preferring Infosys and Wipro among tier-one firms, Mphasis and Hexaware Technologies among tier-two, and Firstsource Solutions and Sagility India in the BPO space.

For the full interview, watch the accompanying video

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