Why Trump cannot restart the Iran war easily now

US President Donald Trump said he was not considering extending the two-week ceasefire with Iran that began on April 8, even as marathon peace talks in Islamabad failed to produce a deal. His stance raises the likelihood of hostilities resuming after April 22. But politically, that might be easier said than done. Trump might shoot from his lips, but firing a missile will be very difficult amid the high political stakes in the US.

Firing just another missile or conducting an airstrike would be very costly for Trump, and he realises that. On Wednesday, Trump said the Iran war was almost over. "I think it can be over very soon. It will end soon," he told Fox News. He wants it to be over soon.

Trump’s approval hovered around 40% before February 28, largely supported by his MAGA base. Since launching hostilities against Iran despite no immediate threat, the "peace president's" ratings have declined sharply, compounded by rising fuel prices and broader economic strain.

According to a March 25 Pew Research Centre report, 60% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the Iran war. The Economist reports 59% disapprove of his management of the economy. Thanks in part to the Iran war, inflation has risen 3.3% year-on-year, while the IMF has cut the US GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 2.3%. Overall approval fell to a record low, now standing at -18, with 56% disapproving and 38% approving as of April 15, reported The Economist.

This slump, driven in part by Trump's war against Iran, comes ahead of November’s midterm elections, where Democrats are poised to mount a strong challenge. A Democratic majority in Congress could significantly constrain Trump’s presidency through 2028.

The US has lost over $3 billion in defence assets in the war against Iran, with a $700-million setback just from drones that were shot down. Then there is the human cost of war. Thirteen American personnel have been killed and 399 wounded in the Iran war.

IRAN WAR IMPACT MAY SPLIT TRUMP'S REPUBLICAN AND MAGA BASE

While Trump still retains strong Republican backing—82% approve of his presidency—cracks are emerging. Pew data shows 79% of Republicans approve of his handling of the Iran conflict, compared to just 52% of Republican-leaning independents.

CNN reported on April 1 that Trump's job performance rating among Republicans had dropped to 43%, down from 52% in January. His economic approval has fallen 8 points overall, including a 14-point drop among Republicans and a steep 23-point decline among those under 45. Meanwhile, 28% of Republicans now say his policies have worsened the economy, up from 13% in January.

The economic fallout, such as increased prices of gasoline, is also hitting key segments of his base particularly hard. In 2024, 80% of US farming-dependent counties voted for Trump, but farmers now face soaring input costs—nitrogen fertiliser at around $600 per ton and diesel above $5 per gallon—driven in part by the war, reported PBS.

While Republican support remains intact for now, mounting economic pressure and unfulfilled promises to avoid "forever wars" risk deepening internal divisions if the conflict with Iran drags on.

TRUMP'S SPAT WITH POPE FURTHER RISKS ALIENATING FANBASE

If the Iran war was already not making Trump unpopular, his less-than-dignified spat with Pope Leo XIV, head of the Catholic Church, risks alienating his fanbase even more.

Many US Catholics have expressed dismay at Trump's broadside against the first pope from the US, especially after the pontiff called for peace and criticised attitudes fuelling the Iran war. Even conservative bishops pushed back. According to the AP, Archbishop Paul Coakley and Bishop Robert Barron, who had previously been supportive of the President, condemned Trump’s remarks as "entirely inappropriate and disrespectful," seeking an apology.

The backlash extended to evangelical circles after Trump posted an image portraying himself as a Christ-like figure. Prominent voices like David Brody reacted sharply, saying, "TAKE THIS DOWN, MR PRESIDENT. You're not God." Trump later removed the post but insisted there was "nothing to apologise for".

The controversy comes just six months before the midterms, as Trump faces low approval ratings and growing dissent within his MAGA base over the Iran war. Catholics and evangelicals have been key to his support—white evangelicals made up 34% of his 2024 voters, with 79% backing him, according to AP. Yet a February 2026 AP-NORC poll found only about 4 in 10 Catholics approve of his presidency.

For Trump, the writing is on the wall. His Republican and MAGA voter base, while still standing behind him, are increasingly being disillusioned by the Iran war, and the administration's vilification of the head of the Catholic Church. Should Trump's "delusion of omnipotence" get the better of him and re-commence hostilities with Iran, his voter base will start deserting him just when his Democrat opponents are at their strongest. This is why Trump might be hitting hard with words, but he will find it very difficult to restart the Iran war.

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