Trade Setup for March 10: Nifty remains in sell-on-rise mode despite reclaiming 24,000; oil remains key

The bears tightened their grip on Dalal Street as Indian equities extended their losing streak, starting the week on a weak note. The benchmark Nifty 50 plunged as much as 700 points in early trade on March 9 amid weak global cues.

The index is now on the verge of entering a technical correction, which is defined as a fall of 10% from its recent peak. The Nifty had hit a record high on January 5, 2026.

After slipping to an intraday low of 23,697, the index staged a partial recovery, clawing back over 300 points to end the session near the day's high. Despite the rebound, the Nifty has still fallen nearly 2,000 points from its recent swing high in just three weeks.

Monday's sell-off wiped out around ₹9 lakh crore in investor wealth during the trading session.

The index eventually closed off its lows, ending the day lower by 422 points as late buying helped trim some of the losses.

Among Nifty constituents, Wipro Ltd, Reliance Industries Ltd and Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd emerged as the top gainers. On the other hand, selling pressure dragged down Tata Motors Ltd, UltraTech Cement Ltd and Maruti Suzuki India Ltd, which ended as the key laggards.

The weakness was broad-based across sectors. Nifty IT was the only sectoral index to end in the green, while indices such as Nifty Auto, Nifty PSU Bank, Nifty Consumer Durables and Nifty Metal bore the brunt of the sell-off.

Broader markets also mirrored the weakness in the benchmarks. Although both indices recovered more than 1.5% from their intraday lows, the Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 still ended the session with losses of 1.97% and 2.22%, respectively.

Key factors behind the fall

Crude oil surge

: The sharp rally in crude oil prices has emerged as a major overhang for Indian equities. Oil prices surged nearly 30% on Monday to cross the $115 per barrel mark amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict. Higher oil prices are particularly negative for India, which remains a major net importer of crude.

Global market weakness: Global equities also came under pressure as fears of prolonged geopolitical tensions weighed on investor sentiment. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 489 points after earlier dropping more than 1,000 points. Futures linked to the S&P 500 declined 0.9%, while Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 1%.

Stronger US dollar: The strengthening US dollar added to the pressure on emerging markets. The US Dollar Index is hovering near the 100 mark, while the Indian rupee has weakened close to record lows around 92.34 against the dollar. A stronger dollar typically weighs on sectors such as metals and increases imported inflation risks.

Nifty outlook

According to Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities, the overall market structure remains weak. After forming a fresh lower low near 23,700 on Monday, the index could see a short-term pullback towards the 24,200 to 24,300 zone, which may offer a sell-on-rise opportunity.

Analysts at Bajaj Broking said that if the index manages to hold above the 23,700 support level, a rebound towards 24,400 to 24,500 could unfold in the coming sessions.

However, a break below this level could extend the decline towards the 23,400 to 23,200 range.

Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities said that the 23,880 to 23,850 zone remains a key support area. A sustained break below 23,850 could trigger fresh selling pressure and drag the index towards 23,700.

On the upside, he sees the 24,130 to 24,150 band acting as the immediate resistance, with a breakout above this range needed to extend any recovery.

Meanwhile, Nandish Shah of HDFC Securities said the short-term trend for the Nifty remains firmly bearish as the index continues to trade below key moving averages.

He added that Monday's intraday low of 23,697 will act as immediate support, while any relief rally is likely to face strong resistance in the 24,300 to 24,400 zone.

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