Three more Reform UK councillors expelled from party over ‘dishonest’ behaviour after leaked video meeting – UK politics live

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Labour at 17%, its lowest level ever in YouGov poll, level with Tories, with Greens on 16%, Lib Dems 15% - and Reform on 27%

YouGov has published the latest results from the weekly polling it carries out for the Times and Sky News. The results are startling, showing Labour on just 17% (the party’s lowest ever score in a YouGov poll), the Green party just one point behind, and four parties clustered within two points of each other.

One fairly reliable rule about polling is that any poll that makes headlines is likely to be wrong. That is because things become news when they are unusual, but in polling ‘unusual’ is likely to mean outlier (which means wrong). Polling is most useful when it illuminates trends.

But four of the main parties – Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens – are clustering, or at least have been over the past few months. This chart from Politico’s poll of polls (which aggregates all polling results) illustrates this. The YouGov numbers may be ‘wrong’, but the overall story is probably ‘right’.

Commenting on these results, Mothin Ali, the Green party’s co-deputy leader.

When we said we were here to replace Labour and take the fight to Reform we meant it. People are flocking to the Greens because they see we are the party pushing for bold change and are making hope normal again.

We have now surged beyond 150,000 members - a more than 100% increase in just over a month. In the same period our poll ratings have shot up to their highest ever YouGov showing and the Green Party is now within touching distance of Labour.

Badenoch declines to say whether or not she thinks Sarah Pochin's black people on TV complaint was racist

Keir Starmer (here) and the Lib Dem leader Ed Davey (here) have both said that the Reform UK MP Sarah Pochin was being racist when she said “it drives me mad when I see adverts full of black people, full of Asian people”.

Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, has said that, though the comment was “ugly”, his colleague was not being racist.

Last night Kemi Badenoch was on ITV’s Peston. She said the Pochin comments were “quite shocking”. But, asked if they were racist, she said that as a black person she was “tired” of having to address questions like that, and she did not give an answer. She said she wanted to talk about Conservative plans to fix the country, not Reform UK and TV adverts.

Here is the clip.

Three more Reform UK councillors expelled from party over 'dishonest' behaviour

Three more members of Reform’s “flagship” council have been expelled for “dishonest and deceptive behaviour” following a leaked video meeting, PA Media reports. PA says:

Reform UK took control of Kent county council (KCC) after winning 57 of the 81 seats at the local elections in May, overturning a 30-year Tory majority.

Due to the number of suspensions and removals since May, there are now less than 50 Reform councillors sitting at KCC.

After footage of an online meeting where KCC leader Linden Kemkaran was seen shouting and swearing at her members was revealed by the Guardian, four councillors were suspended.

Three of those councillors: Bill Barrett, Oliver Bradshaw and Paul Thomas, along with another councillor, Brian Black, have now been kicked out of Reform UK following investigations.

A Reform spokesperson said: “At the request of the leader of Kent County Council, Cllr Black and Cllr Thomas were invited to meet with officials from Reform HQ in order to find a way forward for all involved.

“Following this meeting, a decision has been made to expel Cllr Black, Cllr Thomas and Cllr Bradshaw from the party after they displayed a lack of integrity.

“These individuals have shown a pattern of dishonest and deceptive behaviour which the party will not tolerate from its elected officials.”

Last week, Barrett and another councillor, Robert Ford, were kicked out by email from Reform HQ which said they had “undermined” the interests of the party and brought it into “disrepute”.

OBR productivity downgrade to create £20bn hole in budget, more than expected, reports say

The budget is just over four weeks away, and already the papers have been awash with speculation about what Rachel Reeves, but some stories are probably better sourced than others. When the BBC and the Financial Times start leading with the same scoop, it is wise to take it seriously.

That is why there is a lot of interest in the news that Reeves faces a bigger-than-expected hit to the public finances of around £20bn, because of poor productivity in the UK economy.

As Graeme Wearden reports,

Analysts have been expecting a smaller downgrade to productivity that would result in a £7bn to £14bn fiscal hit under the IFS calculation.

Graeme has more on his business live blog.

Minister defends plan to house asylum seekers in military sites even if it costs more

Good morning. The Home Office confirmed last night that it wants to use two barracks, in Scotland and southern England, to house around 900 male asylum seekers. The two sites are Cameron Barracks in Inverness and Crowborough Training Camp in East Sussex and ministers want the men to start moving in from the end of next month. Kevin Rawlinson has more details here.

In some respects, this announcement can be added to the list of government U-turns; only last summer the government was saying it wanted to end the use of military sites for asylum seekers.

This morning Luke Pollard, a defence minister, has been on the airwaves. He confirmed that Cameron Barracks in Inverness and Crowborough Training Camp were being lined up as accommodation for asylum seekers and he told the BBC that this was about seeing if this approach works.

Some bases are small, some bases are larger in terms of numbers, but I think the conversation around the bases that are in the news today is about proving this concept, is about seeing whether this works. We believe that these bases can provide adequate accommodation for asylum seekers.

Yesterday the Commons home affairs committee warned that housing asylum seekers in barracks, not hotels, could end up being more expensive. Pollard suggested that this would be worth it given the extent of public opposition to asylum seekers being housed in hotels.

We’re looking at what’s possible and, in some cases, those bases may be a different cost to hotels, but I think we need to reflect the public mood on this asylum hotels need to close.

We are likely to hear more on this from Keir Starmer, who is doing a visit this morning where he will be speaking to the media.

Here is the agenda for the day.

Morning: Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, is still in Saudi Arabia, where she is speaking at an investment conference.

Morning: Keir Starmer is on a visit in the north-west of England, linked to the deal he signed yesterday to sell Typhoon jets to Turkey.

11am: The Reform MP Danny Kruger holds a press conference to announce plans to cut spending on the civil service.

11.30am: Yvette Cooper, the foreign secretary, takes questions in the Commons.

Noon: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.

2.45pm: Starmer chairs cabinet.

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