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A very important week has begun for not just the Indian equities, but for the global equity markets as a whole. A slew of results, macro data, interest rate decisions, and geopolitical developments will all keep investors on their toes through the week.
Here's why the week is important:
US-Iran Developments
Oil prices fell sharply after the US halted its strikes on Iran following nearly two weeks of attacks. Brent crude slid as much as 7.4% before settling around $92 a barrel early on Monday, July 29.
The dollar, which had strengthened as a safe-haven currency during the conflict, eased against most major currencies as tensions cooled, while Treasury prices rose as inflation fears faded.
Washington has offered no explanation for halting its campaign after 13 days, leaving markets uncertain about President Donald Trump's next move. Iran's military said it had also stopped its attacks, and Omani and Iranian officials were reported to be discussing how to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to shipping, raising hopes the key oil route would avoid further disruption and offering some relief to global crude prices.
The developments in West Asia will be key to track, not just for the crude price move, but also for the subsequent impact on the equity markets
All Eyes On The FOMC
Investors remain cautious ahead of the Fed's rate decision this week. Policymakers were widely expected to hold interest rates steady at their July 28–29 meeting, according to Deloitte analysis, though the recent spike in oil prices has revived inflation concerns.
Also Read: US stocks rise as inflation eases; Fed rate hike odds fall; IBM shares plunge
Some analysts believe Fed officials could disagree internally on holding rates, citing the combination of Trump administration tariffs and strong AI-driven demand pushing up prices, according to Deloitte's global economic analysis.
Adding to the uncertainty, new Fed chair Kevin Warsh has signaled he wants to move away from forward guidance, arguing markets function better reacting to actual data rather than the Fed's cues.
Seventeen other Federal Open Market Committee members still submitted rate forecasts, with many pointing to hikes rather than cuts. A week earlier, futures markets had priced just a 6.4% chance of a rate hike at the Fed's next meeting; that has since jumped to 36.3%, while the probability of at least one hike by year-end has climbed to 88.2% from 57.1%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
The Fed's decision opens three days of central bank meetings among G7 economies, followed by the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan. None are expected to change rates, but all are likely to flag they are watching inflation from higher energy costs closely.
Another Results-Heavy Week On Dalal Street
Corporate earnings from several major companies add further weight to the week for Indian markets. Coal India, BEL, Larsen & Toubro, Hindustan Unilever, Adani Enterprises, Asian Paints, Adani Ports, Bajaj Finance, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Steel, Maruti Suzuki, ITC and Sun Pharma are among at least 200 major results that will be reported during the course of the week.
AI Spending Test Continues This Week
Both Alphabet and Tesla, part of the Magnificent Seven cohort, sold-off last week after they reported their results where they both reported an increase in spending for the year.
While Alphabet raised its full-year capex guidance to $195 million to $205 million, Tesla said operating expenses will continue to remain on the higher side.
The street, which has been concerned about the returns on such heavy spending, punished the entire cohort on Thursday, wiping out $767 million in overall market capitalisation for these companies.
This same concern will be put to test yet again as peers of Alphabet and Tesla - Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta will be reporting their results this week.
Also Read: Goldman Sachs picks best hedges for a US rate-shock scenario
While Microsoft and Meta report on Wednesday along with the Fed rate decision, Apple and Amazon will be reporting their numbers on Thursday.
Along with these, chip giants Qualcomm, SK Hynix, and Samsung Electronics will also be reporting their results for the quarter during the course of the week.
