Tax season presents a boom-or-bust test for U.S. auto sales

DETROIT – The strength of the U.S. automotive industry will face an early test this spring that has nothing to do with cars or trucks.

With tax season starting, industry experts are projecting that some Americans, many of whom have been priced out of the new vehicle market, will use anticipated higher tax returns to purchase a new or used vehicle.

Extra cash on hand could lend a needed boost to an industry that's suffering from slowing vehicle sales — or it could reveal continued problems for the automotive industry with inflated prices and consumers still reluctant to spend on big-ticket items.

"Their new tax bill is actually going to be less, and they're going to be getting more in their tax return. It's going to be a little bit of a surprise, we think, for a lot of potential buyers out there," said Cox Automotive senior economist Charlie Chesbrough at a recent auto analyst conference.

The average IRS tax refund is up 10.9% so far this season, compared to the same point in 2025, according to early filing data. As of Feb. 6, the average refund amount was $2,290, compared with $2,065 reported about one year prior.

The increases were expected under tax changes by the Trump administration, including the One, Big Beautiful Bill Act signed in July. That legislation removed taxes on overtime and tips and allowed eligible taxpayers to deduct up to $10,000 in annual interest paid on loans for new, U.S.-assembled vehicles purchased, among other adjustments.

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Many of the tax changes were made retroactive to January 2025, which means taxpayers may have withheld more than they will ultimately owe.

"Although it's a bit of an unknown, it feels like it could be really beneficial to vehicle sales, particularly in that sort of Q1-Q2 timeframe," said David Oakley, GlobalData manager of Americas vehicle sales forecasts.

March is historically one of the top months for U.S. vehicle sales, especially for used vehicles. The month has represented 9.1% of annual new vehicle sales on average over the past 12 years, according to Cox, trailing only the month of December at 9.3% of sales.

Many of the recent tax changes also assist middle- and higher-income consumers who may decide to pull ahead a vehicle purchase. The industry saw a similar dynamic during the Covid pandemic when the Trump administration issued many Americans $1,400 stimulus checks.

Back then, though, federal interest rates were near zero compared to the current Federal Reserve funds rate of 3.5%–3.75% and inventory of new vehicles was low. Now, with higher borrowing costs, but improved inventory, the equation could be different.

More buyers are agreeing to longer-term loans amid higher financing costs and prices. Putting down extra cash ahead of time can help lower monthly payments, which Carmax's Edmunds reports reached a record of $772 per month for new vehicles during the fourth quarter.

The average transaction price for new vehicles in the U.S. was hovering around $50,000 toward the end of last year, up 30% from the start of 2020, according to Cox.

"What we don't know is with consumer finance so stressed already, is that extra money already spent? Whether that's going to be in the pockets. It's a really mixed bag out there," Chesbrough said.

Consumers could choose to use higher tax returns to pay off credit card debt — which nationally stands at a record level of $1.28 trillion, according to a report last week by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York — or replenish their savings after a period of persistent inflation.

U.S. consumer confidence fell to 84.5 in January, the lowest level since May 2014, driven by intense anxiety over high prices and a weakening labor market.

"It's only confident people, people who feel comfortable about their economic fortunes of the economy of the United States, that are going to be interested in taking out a $40,000 or $50,000 auto loan," Chesbrough said. "It's a very difficult situation right now."

– CNBC's Kate Dore contributed to this report.