44 minutes ago
Badenoch says 'double amputees run marathons' as she defends plan to slash disability benefits as part of £36bn welfare cuts
Good morning. It is quite easy for politicians to declare that they will cut the welfare bill by X amount – but much harder when they have to explain exactly who will lose out. This is summed up by a good anecdote about a former chancellor (Ken Clarke, according to some versions, but it could have been any of them), who gave this reply when asked for cuts that would save £1bn:
So, do you want one million people to lose £1,000 each, or 10 million people to lose £100 each?
Today Kemi Badenoch is giving a speech to launch a policy document, Welfare That Works, explaining how the Tories would cut welfare by £36bn. That’s 36 million people losing £1,000 each, according to the logic of our notional chancellor, although of course it is not quite as simple as that. All of these cuts are ones that the Conservative party has proposed already, but what we are getting today is a bit more detail about how some of them would be implemented in practice, and a big overall argument defending them.
Here is a page from the document summarising where the cuts would fall.
I will post more on the detail in the document later.
According to extracts from her speech released in advance, Badenoch will say that she is publishing these proposals now so that voters do not get any “nasty surprises” if they elect a Tory government.
It is too late to work out what you think once you’re in government. If you want to change this country, you need to know exactly what you want to do and how you’re going to do it …
We’re telling people what we are going to do now so that there will be no nasty surprises from us such as cutting your winter fuel payment, the jobs tax or the family farm tax once we get into government.
Badenoch will also claim that spending on working-age benefits is “crushing our economy”. More than a third of her proposed savings would come from cuts to sickness and disability benefits, and Badenoch will claim there is a “fundamental difference” between Conservative and Labour thinking on this issue. She will say:
Labour MPs think cutting welfare is always cruel. They believe the kindest thing you can do for someone who is struggling is to tell them it’s okay not to look after themselves. That there’s nothing wrong with a life of dependency. And if you don’t think very hard about it, I can see why you might believe that is kind. Of course, there are people who genuinely cannot work. People with serious illnesses and disabilities. People who need time to recover. We must have a safety net for those people.
But the reality is that millions of people can and do contribute to our economy to their families to their communities even when they face serious challenges. Double amputees run marathons. People who are housebound do wonderful creative work from home. People with autism run some of the biggest tech companies in the world.
If you tell a young person that their ADHD means they are defective and will never amount to anything, that mindset is likely to be more destructive to their future than the condition itself. That is what our welfare system is currently doing. Conservatives believe in a system that looks at people through the lens of what they can do, not what they cannot.
In fact, this is a misleading caricature of Labour thinking on welfare; the government is about to publish a report from Alan Milburn that will be 100% dedicated to making the system more focused on what young people “can do, not what they cannot”. But, as is often the case with Badenoch’s rhetoric, it crystalises an argument and makes for a good headline.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9.30am: Andy Burnham chairs a political cabinet.
10.30am: Kemi Badenoch gives a speech on her plan to cut benefits by £36bn.
11am: Michael Marra gives what is being billed as his first major speech since becoming Scottish Labour leader.
Noon: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.
2.30pm: Alex Norris, the justice secretary, takes questions in the Commons.
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Key events
Labour can't logically reject case for 2nd independence referendum now Scottish party wants to overturn Brexit, SNP says
The SNP has said that it is not logical for Labour to resist a second referendum on independence now that Scottish Labour favours overturning the result of the 2016 Brexit referendum.
Commenting on Michael Marra’s speech (see 12.28pm), Keith Brown, the SNP’s depute (deputy) leader, said:
It is good that Scottish Labour has finally accepted the obvious fact - that the UK ripping Scotland out of the EU against our will has been a disaster.
Having accepted that people are able to revisit the EU referendum decision taken 10 years ago, how can any Labour party politician now seriously claim Scotland can’t revisit the independence referendum decision taken 12 years ago?
The UK Labour government’s position is as clear as mud - the fact is the only way to guarantee Scotland’s EU membership is to rejoin as an independent member state.
And after we do so, an independent Scotland would absolutely welcome the remainder of the UK back into the EU.
The Commons is sitting at 2.30pm today. (Normally proceedings start at 11.30am on a Tuesday, but the Monday hours apply today because the house was in recess yesterday.)
After justice questions, there will be an urgent question at 3.30pm, tabled by Iain Duncan Smith, about the Chinese government obtaining phone records and financial information about MPs sanctioned by China. Then there will be two ministerial statements: the Foreign Office minister Chris Elmore on Chogm, and then the children’s minister Josh MacAlister on regulations about mobile phones in schools (see 10.04am).
Labour dismisses Tory plans for welfare cuts as 'charter for homelessness and human misery'
Responding to Kemi Badenoch’s speech on welfare cuts this morning, a Labour spokesperson said:
The Tories’ so-called ‘plan’ is a charter for homelessness and human misery that would push people into hardship and end up costing the state more.
The crude cuts they want to make would compound the mistakes they made in government, which led to the welfare bill rocketing by nearly £114bn and a Neets crisis.
NI's Sinn Féin first minister Michelle O'Neill accuses unionists of 'blatant sectarianism' over Irish education bill veto
Unionists in the Northern Ireland assembly have been accused of “blatant sectarianism” in response to a move at Stormont that provides fresh evidence that power sharing is collapsing.
As the Press Association reports, relations between parties in the power-sharing executive have soured in the fallout from the Drumcree parading dispute, which has seen Sinn Féin vice president Michelle O’Neill being interviewed by police in relation to her participation in an allegedly unlawful protest on the Garvaghy Road in Portadown in September that was held to try to block an Orange Order parade from Drumcree Church proceeding down the predominantly nationalist road. PA says:
The row has had political consequences at Stormont, with DUP deputy first minister Emma Little-Pengelly having stopped joint engagements with O’Neill.
In a new development, today the DUP said it would use a petition of concern in an attempt to block legislation around Irish-medium education proposed by a Sinn Féin MLA. Pat Sheehan has proposed a private member’s bill to require Stormont’s Department of Education to prepare a workforce plan for Irish-medium education.
The bill is scheduled to go through its final stage at the assembly tomorrow. The petition of concern forces a cross-community vote, and requires majority support from both unionist and nationalist MLAs to pass. Other unionist parties have indicated they will support the DUP petition, meaning the bill would fail.
In a comment on social media, O’Neill said:
The DUP, TUV, and UUP have used a Petition of Concern to block a Sinn Féin Bill that would have ensured teachers and staff are in place in Irish-medium schools to meet growing demand.
Using the Petition of Concern to deny children the support they deserve is despicable.
It is blatant sectarianism and anti-Irish bigotry, and yet another desperate attempt to drag us backwards.
There is no going back to the past.
Sinn Féin will continue to stand up for people’s rights, and face down those who want to drag us back.
Lord Ashcroft has published the full details of his latest polling. He outraged Nigel Farage at the weekend when he revealed that it gave the Tories an eight-point lead over Reform UK. In part this might be explained by the fact that conventional polls ask how people would vote if there were an election now, but Ashcroft gets his main headline figure by asking how people will vote at the next election.
He polled on lots of other questions. One was about how people would vote in a referendum on joining the EU. Some 53% of people would vote to join, and 29% to stay out, the poll suggests.
Interestingly, 28% of those who voted Tory at the last election would be voting to join.
Burnham tells cabinet 'no sensible person' thinks Tory Brexit deal with EU working for Britain
Downing Street has issued a readout from the political cabinet this morning. Most of it is about the Alan Milburn review being published next week. Here is an extract.
The prime minister said there needed to be a shift from paying for failure to investing in success, as he said those around the Cabinet table knew from their own constituencies that the right support had not been there to allow young people to seize opportunities.
Ministers highlighted how Labour had already made good strides since the general election. The prime minister welcomed figures showing there are now a record level of children starting school ready to thrive. More than 72% had a good level of development according to government data for 2025/26, up four percentage points in just a year.
Ministers also discussed Europe, the readout says.
Turning to the UK-EU summit, the prime minister said that no sensible person thought the Brexit deal negotiated by the Conservatives was working for the country. He argued there could be a significant prize next week if we successfully secure practical agreements that make the country better off.
Ministers said the government would put Britain’s interests first by taking opportunities next week that cut red tape on businesses and ease prices for consumers.
Scottish Labour leader Michael Marra urges Burnham to commit to UK rejoining EU at next election
Severin Carrell
Severin Carrell is the Guardian’s Scotland editor.
Michael Marra, the Scottish Labour leader, has called for the UK to fully rejoin the EU, claiming he wants Scotland to help shape the debate on reversing Brexit.
Less than two months after succeeding Anas Sarwar as Scottish leader, Marra said the economic, security and political case for rejoining the EU was overwhelming – a position the UK Labour party and UK government have not yet adopted.
Marra said he had spoken to Andy Burnham, the prime minister, on Tuesday to tell him of his change in Scottish Labour’s policy. While the Scottish party has historically more Europhile than the UK party, its official policy has until now been aligned with the UK government’s.
Marra said Burnham’s conference speech, where the prime minister said a conversation about reversing Brexit had to begin, opened the way for Scottish Labour to take a clear position now.
Speaking at Edinburgh University, Marra said he wanted rejoining the EU to be part of the next Labour general election manifesto, but acknowledged to reporters there was no guarantee that would happen.
His dramatic change of stance is designed partly to attract former Labour voters who deserted the party in favour of the staunchly pro-EU Scottish party. The SNP has insisted the only clear route to EU membership would come through independence.
Marra said:
I also know as much as I need to persuade people in my own party about this destination, I need to persuade people in my own country.
One million Scots voted leave [in 2016]. Many did so out of a desperate desire for change. My approach will be to listen and persuade them, not berate them.
This is what Scottish Labour will do. Bring people together. Find common ground. Make the case for change and unite people in that endeavour.
The truth is that Scotland’s best chance for re-entering the EU is by the UK rejoining. We can build a case through honest deliberation and careful compromise. We can build a coalition of those seeking change.
We can build a consensus. The SNP tells Scots they must leave one union to join another. I’m not asking Scotland to choose.
I’m asking Scotland to help bring the whole United Kingdom back into Europe. Let’s use one union to join another.
Tory welfare cuts would produce 'biggest overnight increase in child poverty since records began', says charity
Q: [From Peter Walker from the Guardian] Do you back the plans in the budget to ringfence preventative spending?
Badenoch said she would not guarantee to keep these proposals in place. She did not comment in details on the advantages or disadvantages of the PDEL plan, but she said the government could only protect budgets if it had money.
Q: How do you respond to child poverty groups saying these proposals could lead to the biggest increase in child poverty in history?
That is a reference to Sara Ogilvie, policy director at the Child Poverty Action Group policy director, issuing this comment this morning about the Tory proposals.
These proposals would take the UK back to the dark ages, causing the biggest overnight increase in child poverty since records began. We need all our politicians to commit to a plan to reduce child poverty rather than condemn the next generation to a future of struggle.
Badenoch said child poverty groups were set up to campaign on this issue.
Child poverty groups are there to say that there’s going to be more and more child poverty unless their demands are met.
We have to balance what they’re saying with what the facts say and with what we are seeing on the ground. We are MPs as well. We see what’s happening in constituencies.
Of course, we don’t want to see child poverty, but the best way to stop child poverty is to make sure their parents have well paying jobs. That is our plan.
Q: Do you have advice for young women about how to deal with predatory men?
Badenoch said young women should “believe in themselves, and their own self-worth” and never be afraid to tell the police or others about things that happen.
She said silence protected predators.
Badenoch says Alan Milburn has briefed shadow cabinet on his report, and there will be 'many good things' in it
Q; [From Kitty Donaldson from the i] Will you vote in favour of the legislation to implement the plans in the Milburn report?
Whately said Alan Milburn would propose more spending. She said the Tories were in no doubt they could make savings instead.
Badenoch said Milburn gave a presentation to the shadow cabinet on his proposals. She went on:
There will be many good things in [Milburn’s report]. Our issue is not with Alan Milburn. Our issue is with Andy Burnham and Labour MPs who just want to look for who they can tax so they can pay for more benefits.
Badenoch backs away from previous claim that early election likely
Q: [From Katie Harris from the Express] Are you worried that you won’t be able to implement these plans because the polls suggest Andy Burnham has done a good job uniting the left, while the right is still split?
No, said Badenoch.
She said a year ago people said the Tories might cease to exist. But the person who left was Keir Starmer. She went on:
The fact is, no one can predict what is going to happen. I remember the election I came in, in 2017, we were 20 points ahead at the beginning of that election and we went backwards.
The idea that the polls now are exactly what’s going to happen for an election, which could be early – but why would the prime minister be calling one only to raise taxes? – or in three years’ time [is wrong].
What we are doing is making sure that we are ready, not just for an election, but ready to govern.
Until recently Badenoch was predicting that Andy Burnham would call an early election.
Q: [From Bethany Dawson from the LBC] How will you change the way Pip (personal independence payments) assessments are carried out? And who will sign people off sick for the long term under your plan if it is not longer GPs?
Whately said the Tories would redesign the Pip assessment process, including “a higher expectation of medical evidence, which is something that is missing from the system at the moment”.
On sick notes, she said it did not make sense for GPs too have to do this. It would be better for an occupational health professional to do this, she said.
In response to another question about Russell Brand, and whether the BBC was at fault, Badenoch said:
What I do know is that we have sexual predators all around. But celebrities do find it easier. They find victims more easily. They have the resources to cover up what it is that they do.
And so organisations like the BBC need to take extra care.
Q: [From David Maddox from the Independent] We have heard the story this week of Eivie White, a 13-year-old with special educational needs who killed herself because she was not getting enough support. Won’t your cuts just make things worth for people facing similar problems?
Badenoch accepts that is a serious question. But she says there is a problem with children being told they are disabled, and then being on a path to getting Pip and being Neet as an adult.
Badenoch declines to back call for Miliband to apologise for his 2015 interview with Russell Brand
Q: [From Jason Groves from the Mail] We heard Lucy Powell squirming this morning when asked about Russell Brand, and Ed Miliband’s interview with him in 2015. (See 10.27am.) Should Miliband apologise?
Badenoch starts by joking that Labour should apologise for everything.
But she goes on to say:
I’m sure if it was Ed Miliband sitting in this chair, he’d be very happy to attack us for guilt by association.
But I don’t know that they knew the extent of what he had done.
Conservatives believe in the principle of you’re innocent until you’re proven guilty. And he has now been proven guilty.
Badenoch says she remembers the Guardian journalist Owen Jones saying Russell Brand endorsing Labour in 2015 would be bad for the Tories. She says she just thought it was “embarrassing” that Labour wanted celebrity endorsements.
Politicians are supposed to be serious, she says, not “wanting to be on Gogglebox or whatever”.
Let Labour chase the celebrity status and the TikToks. We’re going to focus on getting Britain working again.
Q: [From the Sun’s Ryan Sabey] Do you think there is a case now for mandatory national service?
Badenoch says the Tories are against mandatory national service.
And she veers off into an attack on the SNP over the Scottish Government’s Remembrance Day tweet. She claims they were “tweeting something that had nothing to do with Remembrance [Sunday], basically to thumb their noses at everybody else.”
Badenoch criticises Reform UK for planning to remove benefits from EU nationals, breaching post-Brexit deal with EU
Q: [From Jack Walters from GB News] Why are EU nationals excluded from your plan to stop foreigners being eligible for benefits?
Badenoch says EU nationals will still qualify for benefits because that was part of the post-Brexit deal with the EU.
We don’t just tell people something and then change it randomly later on. We have a trade and cooperation agreement with the European Union. We have a free trade agreement. We’ve left the EU, but there are British citizens in the EU as well who benefit from the other side of that contract. So just ripping it up means that it’s going to affect British citizens.
Reform UK would take away benefits from EU nationals. Badenoch goes on:
When Reform is coming out with all these random plans, they haven’t done the homework, they haven’t looked at the impact. They’re just randomly ripping out a contract with the EU settled citizens here … We are doing things the right way.
Q: [From Nomia Iqbal from the BBC] If you spend money to get people into work, aren’t you just spending money to get them off the unemployment register.
Whately does not accept that. She says it can make sense to support people into work.
Q: Do you still think the government is not doing enough to help the US in its war against Iran?
Badenoch says Iran is an enemy.
And she says it is “very concerning” that the Americans are withdrawing aircraft from bases in the UK.
And our government has got absolutely nothing to say about it. So we need to focus on what is actually happening right now. The world is becoming more dangerous and I want our government to get serious about it rather than spend time, you know, doing goodness knows what’s on TikTok.
