Oil holds decline as potential Iran deal raises supply concerns

Oil was steady after two days of losses as a potential nuclear deal between the US and Iran risks exacerbating a glut forecast for later this year.

Brent traded below $65 a barrel after declining 2.4% on Thursday in its biggest daily drop this month while West Texas Intermediate traded near $62 a barrel. US President Donald Trump suggested the US is closer to an agreement to curb Iran’s nuclear activities.

A deal raises the prospect of limited extra supply from Iran, but it would arrive into a market gearing up for a surplus. The Energy Agency on Thursday reiterated that it expects an increase in new supplies, and the return of shuttered production by OPEC+, to exceed slowing demand growth this year and next, creating a global glut.

Oil is still set to eke out a second weekly gain, after jumping on the prospect of increased demand following a détente in the trade conflict between the US and China, the biggest crude consumers. Prices are still down more than 10% this year thanks to the twin hit of trade uncertainties and faster-than-expected output increases by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies.

Parts of the futures curve remains in contango, a bearish pricing pattern that’s characterized by nearer-term contracts trading at a discount to longer-dated ones. The spread between the nearest two December contracts for Brent was at the most negative in more than a week.

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