News18 Mega Exit Poll Highlights: JD(U) Comeback Likely To Spark NDA Seat Surge In Bihar Phase 1

Last Updated:November 11, 2025, 18:42 IST

The Mahagathbandhan (MGB) appears to be grappling with a sharp decline in its seat count compared to the 2020 Assembly polls

The projections indicate a substantial recovery for the NDA, powered largely by gains for the Janata Dal (United). Representational image: PTI

A mega exit poll by News18 on the voting patterns across the 121 constituencies that voted in the first phase of the Bihar Assembly Elections suggests the Democratic Alliance (NDA) has secured a significant lead, while the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) appears to be grappling with a sharp decline in its seat count compared to the 2020 Assembly polls.

The projections indicate a substantial recovery for the NDA, powered largely by gains for the Janata Dal (United).

The survey covered 122 Vidhan Sabha constituencies in Bihar, i.e., 50% of the 243 seats. In each Vidhan Sabha constituency, 225 interviews were conducted with the people who cast their votes in the election.

Phase 1: Alliance-wise Outlook

The NDA is projected to take a commanding early lead in this phase, forecast to win between 60 and 70 seats out of the 121 contested. This figure suggests a strong surge from the 2020 tally, where the NDA secured 55 seats in these same constituencies.

Conversely, the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) is projected to finish with 45 to 55 seats, indicating a challenging phase for the alliance, which had won 61 of these seats in the last election. The internal data suggests that the Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), contesting 118 seats, is not projected to win any seats in this opening phase.

Phase 1: Party-wise Seat Projections

The projections highlight the JD(U) as the biggest gainer in Phase 1.

The JD(U) is forecast to win between 35 and 45 seats (contested 57), a remarkable rise from its 2020 tally of just 23 seats in this block. This improvement is credited to the consolidation of the NDA vote, suggesting that seats the JD(U) lost due to the LJP’s solo run in 2020 are now returning to the fold.

The BJP is projected to secure 20 to 30 seats (contested 48), a dip from its 32-seat performance in 2020 within this phase’s constituencies.

The RJD, which had won 42 seats in this phase in 2020, is predicted to win only 25 to 35 seats (contested 72), indicating a significant loss of ground in the initial stage of the election.

The Indian Congress (INC) is projected to win between 5 and 10 seats (contested 24), a modest performance considering their 8-seat win in 2020.

The combined Left parties are expected to maintain their influence, projected to win 10 to 15 seats, potentially an increase over the 11 seats they secured in 2020.

Key Demographic Trends

Analysis of voter preference shows notable splits across demographic lines:

The Youth Factor: The RJD holds a significant edge among 18- to 35-year-old voters, where the party’s promise of employment appears to have found strong resonance.

Caste and Class: Support for the BJP is highest among Upper Caste (General Category) voters and Landowners. The JD(U) draws strength from the EBC (Extremely Backward Classes), Skilled Workers, White Collar workers, and Businessmen. Meanwhile, the RJD and INC appeal strongly to OBCs, landless workers, and non-agricultural labourers.

Education and Geography: The Congress is noted for having a higher proportion of Undergraduates and Post-Graduates among its supporters. The BJP’s support is skewed towards urban voters and women, while the JD(U) has a more rural base.

Projections for VIP Contests

The internal data projects tight finishes in several high-stakes constituencies. The BJP is projected to secure a narrow victory in Gaura Bauram and a win in Kumhrar, with Sanjay Kumar and Sujit Kumar leading. The RJD is projected to win the critical Maner seat with Bhai Birendra and Brahampur with Shambhunath Yadav, alongside a narrow win for Awadh Bihari Choudhary in Siwan. Key victories for the JD(U), often by narrow margins, are projected in constituencies like Bahadurpur, Hasanpur, and Jagdishpur.

News elections News18 Mega Exit Poll Highlights: JD(U) Comeback Likely To Spark NDA Seat Surge In Bihar Phase 1

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