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Kalyan Jewellers' expansion strategy reflects measured execution rather than aggressive capital deployment, brokerage firm Jefferies said as it maintained a 'Buy' rating on the stock.
The brokerage has set a target price of ₹830 for Kalyan Jewellers shares, valuing it at 38x September 2028 earnings. The target implies an upside of 50 per cent from the previous close of ₹553.50.
On the bourses, Kalyan Jewellers shares traded largely flat on Friday, even as the benchmark indices staged a sharp rebound after two-day fall. As of 11 AM, the stock was down 0.12 per cent at ₹553.35.
According to exchange data, Kalyan Jewellers shares have gained nearly 15 per cent in 2026 so far and surged 46 per cent over the past three months. In comparison, the Nifty 50 index has declined 10.4 per cent and 6 per cent, respectively, over the same periods.
Jefferies noted that Kalyan is among India's largest organised jewellery retailers, with over 500 showrooms globally and 7 per cent share of the organised jewellery market. Check - TOP GAINERS NSE | TOP LOSERS NSE
"Despite its scale, the company remains a relatively small player in a $100 billion category that is still around 60 per cent unorganised, providing a long runway for store expansion & share gains," the brokerage said.
Regulatory formalisation, mandatory hallmarking and improving consumer preference for trusted brands continue to support the shift towards organised retail, it said.
Kalyan Jewellers' "hyperlocal model, people-centric culture and measured expansion have created a differentiated & scalable retail franchise. The company's edge lies in combining local relevance with scaled execution, making Kalyan one of the few successful national jewellery brands," the brokerage said.
In the base case scenario, Jefferies estimates 23 per cent annual growth in revenue for Kalyan Jewellers over FY26-29E, with some improvement in Ebitda margins. It expects EPS to rise at 21 per cent CAGR, supported by strong jewellery revenue growth.
In the bull case scenario, Jefferies expects annual revenue to grow 26 per cent over FY26-29E and EPS to rise at around 23 per cent. It has assigned a target of ₹1,000, valuing the stock at 45x September 2028 earnings.
Disclaimer: Views and outlook shared belong to the respective brokerages/analysts and are not endorsed by Business Standard. Readers' discretion is advised.
