M&M analysts say valuations attractive, 'growth gems' will deliver

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Shares of Mahindra & Mahindra will be in focus on Friday, November 21, as global brokerages issued upbeat commentary after the company's investor day.

CLSA has maintained an 'Outperform' rating with a target price of ₹4,417. The brokerage said M&M is confident of holding its leadership across SUVs, tractors and LCVs, and sees more room for market share gains with upcoming launches and its strategy to fill product gaps.

Management is targeting an organic revenue CAGR of 15% to 40% across businesses in FY26 to FY30, compared with about 25% over the last five years. Export growth will be a big thrust area, with tractors under the Oja brand, global pickup launches in LCVs and a new UV lineup.

M&M has also raised its tractor volume growth outlook for FY25 to FY30 to 9% from 7 earlier, and expects its LCV business revenue to grow 1.6 times over the same period. The company reiterated aggressive plans to scale up its growth gems portfolio.

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Citi has a 'Buy' recommendation with a target price of ₹4,230. The brokerage pointed out the management's ambition to grow SUV and LCV revenues eightfold between FY20 and FY30, and triple farm equipment revenues in the same period.

Citi said the upgrade in tractor industry growth expectations to a 9% CAGR for FY25 to FY30, and said investors were surprised by a teaser for a new SUV launch scheduled for November 27.

Global expansion, tech-led upgrades and growth in non-tractor farm machinery will also remain focus areas. Citi added that management is upbeat about the growth gems, valuing M&M's share in these businesses at ₹48,000 crore.

Nomura has reiterated its 'Buy' rating with a target price of ₹4,355. It pointed to management's growth targets of 15% to 40% organically across businesses during FY26 to FY30.

The auto division is aiming for eightfold revenue growth between FY20 and FY30, while the farm business is targeting threefold expansion.

Last Mile Mobility is aiming for sixfold growth, Mahindra Finance plans to grow AUM five times, and Mahindra Holidays is targeting a threefold increase in keys and revenues.

Tech Mahindra expects revenue to grow 1.3 times between FY20 and FY27, with margins improving to 15.

Nomura said M&M's current valuation of 13.1x EV/EBITDA remains attractive.

Morgan Stanley, which has an 'Overweight' call and a ₹4,407 target price, said M&M is targeting eightfold revenue growth in SUVs and LCVs and triple growth in the farm segment over FY20 to FY30.

It said LCVs stand to benefit the most from GST rate cuts, while the UV portfolio is seeing higher premiumisation with a 3% rise in top-end variant mix.

Tractor industry growth expectations have also been lifted to a 9% CAGR for FY25 to FY30 from the earlier 7. Morgan Stanley added that M&M aims to scale its emerging growth gems to a $2 billion value by 2030, positioning them to develop a clear right to win.

Shares of Mahindra & Mahindra settled 0.29% lower on Thursday at ₹3,711.80. The stock is up 20% so far in 2025.

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