Lupin's new drug launch could contribute over 25% of its FY26 earnings, analyst says

Shares of Lupin Ltd shares gained nearly 4% on Tuesday, May 13, as the pharma company launched the Tolvaptan tablets or Jynarque generic in the US market.

Axis Capital said Lupin is expected to be the only generic player for the most of the financial year 2026.

The company's revenue opportunity for the ongoing fiscal is estimated at $150 million to $200 million. The gTolvaptan drug can contribute over 25% to Lupin's FY26 earnings and can be a major driver for its performance in this fiscal, Axis Capital said.

The launch helps offset revenue loss from gMirabegron in FY26, the analyst added.

Factoring all this, Axis Cap said it has revised its FY26 earnings before interest taxes depreciation amortisation (EBOITDA) and profit after tax (PAT) by 8% and 10%, respectively.

Lupin is the first to file for this product and is eligible for 180 days of generic drug exclusivity. The drug is indicated to slow kidney function decline in adults at risk of rapidly progressing autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease. It has a market size of $1.46 billion. The product will be manufactured at Lupin's Nagpur facility in India.

Last month, Lupin received approval from the US Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) for its new drug application Tolvaptan in the 15 mg, 30 mg, 45 mg, 60 mg and 90 mg strengths.

Lupin shares gained 3.56% to hit an intraday high of ₹2,114.3 apiece on Tuesday, May 13. The stock has declined 12.77% this year, so far.

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