'It's looking a little scary,' Skymet's monsoon forecast

So far, rainfall across India has remained significantly below normal aside from a brief improvement in weather conditions over parts of eastern and northern India. The outlook isn't any better.

"I'm a little afraid. It's not looking good. It's looking a little scary," GP Sharma, President of Skymet Weather Services, said while discussing the outlook for August.

The Noida, Uttar Pradesh-based private firm that provides weather forecasting expects July to close with an 8-10% rainfall deficit. while the cumulative shortfall for June and July is likely to stay above 20%.

Early weather signals point to a longer break in monsoon activity in August, according to Sharma. "For sure, it's going to be a drought. How severe? That's the only question," he added.

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Agriculture is mostly rain-fed in India, with the south-west monsoon (between June and September) being the primary source. A lack of rain, leading to a drop in crop output, has raised the risk of inflation, which already hit an 18-month high in June, later in the year.

Skymet is currently reviewing its seasonal forecast and expects to release an updated projection within the next week after analysing fresh weather model data.

Some regions, particularly northwest India, Gujarat, parts of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and the northern plains, could remain more vulnerable to deficient rainfall.

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