Iran’s ‘Plan C’ Explained: How The IRGC Is Preparing For A Long Guerrilla War

Last Updated:March 11, 2026, 10:33 IST

Sources say if Iran's missile capability were eliminated, the IRGC is believed to be ready to pivot towards a ground-based resistance model.

As the war between Iran, the United States and Israel intensifies, security sources indicate that Tehran has prepared a contingency strategy in case its conventional military capabilities — particularly its missile arsenal — are neutralised. The plan, described by insiders as “Plan C," envisages a prolonged guerrilla war led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), drawing lessons from conflicts such as the Vietnam War and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Click here for LIVE updates on US-Israel-Iran War.

According to sources familiar with the planning, Iran’s security establishment has been preparing for the possibility that sustained US-Israeli strikes could significantly degrade its missile launch capabilities. Iran’s missile programme has long been the backbone of its deterrence strategy, allowing Tehran to strike adversaries at distance without relying on large conventional forces. However, if this capability were eliminated, the IRGC is believed to be ready to pivot towards a ground-based resistance model.

Sources say Iran has already dispersed small arms across the country as part of this contingency planning. These include rocket launchers, assault rifles and machine guns that have reportedly been distributed through networks linked to the IRGC and other security forces. The aim is to ensure that resistance can continue even if central command structures are disrupted.

Under this scenario, the conflict would shift from missile warfare to a decentralised insurgency. In the event that Iran’s government structure becomes dysfunctional due to sustained attacks, senior leaders could themselves become part of the resistance network. Sources say key political figures, including President Masoud Pezeshkian and national security strategist Ali Larijani, are expected to remain central to coordinating such efforts.

The broader political structure around Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is believed to view a prolonged conflict as strategically advantageous if Iran’s conventional deterrence collapses. The logic behind this approach is rooted in historical precedent. In both the Vietnam War and the War in Afghanistan (2001–2021), the United States faced prolonged insurgencies that imposed heavy economic and political costs despite overwhelming military superiority.

Iran’s planners appear to believe that any attempt by Washington to engineer regime change in Tehran would ultimately require the deployment of American ground troops. If such a deployment were to occur, the IRGC’s strategy would be to entangle those forces in a prolonged and costly insurgency similar to the conflicts that followed the Iraq War.

In such wars, insurgent tactics — ranging from guerrilla ambushes to suicide attacks — often replace conventional military capabilities. Iranian planners reportedly view these tactics as a potential substitute should their missile arsenal be destroyed.

From Tehran’s perspective, a drawn-out conflict could shift the balance from military strength to political endurance. Iranian strategists believe that prolonged wars impose enormous financial and political strain on Washington, especially if public support erodes or Congress becomes reluctant to sustain the costs of a long overseas deployment.

While it remains unclear whether such a scenario will unfold, Iran’s contingency planning underscores how the conflict could evolve beyond airstrikes and missile exchanges into a far more complex and protracted confrontation.

News world Iran’s ‘Plan C’ Explained: How The IRGC Is Preparing For A Long Guerrilla War

Read More