Indian OMCs shares slip as crude rally past $70/b amid geopolitical tensions

Shares of Indian oil market companies (OMC) are trading with losses on Thursday, February 19, as a sharp spike in global crude oil prices surged beyond the $70 per barrel mark, weighing on sentiment for downstream OMCs.

Shares of BPCL fell more than 2.30%, hitting the intraday low of ₹372.15, and as of 11.04 am, the stock was trading 1.86% down at ₹373.80 apiece.

HPCL shares slipped 2.8% to an intraday low of ₹444.40, but were trading slightly higher at ₹447.25 as of 11.05 am, while Indian Oil Corporation Ltd

declined 1.96% following the movement in global crude prices. The stock was trading 1.14% down at ₹176.70 as of 11.06 am.

Brent crude climbed over 4% to move above the $70/barrel mark, while US heating oil prices rose about 5%, amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe.

The US and Iran have yet to reach a potential nuclear deal, raising fears of possible US military intervention. The Eurasia Group has pegged a 65% probability of a US military strike on Iran by the end of April.

Adding to supply concerns were reports of Iran temporarily shutting parts of the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil transit route. Iran and Russia are also set to conduct naval drills in the Sea of Oman and the northern Indian Ocean on Thursday. Meanwhile, Ukraine–Russia talks in Geneva ended without a breakthrough, further clouding the geopolitical outlook.

Crude prices also drew support from a 0.6 million barrel decline in US crude inventories, alongside stronger-than-expected US macro data, including industrial production rising at its fastest pace in a year and housing starts hitting a five-month high.

So far in 2026, crude prices are up around 14%, reversing declines seen in the past three years — down 20% in 2025, 3% in 2024 and 10% in 2023. Brent has traded in a range of $59.7 to $70.6 in 2026 so far, compared with a 2025 range of $58.9 to $82. The World Bank has projected an average crude price of $68 for 2026, while Morgan Stanley expects prices closer to $60.

Despite the near-term spike, supply-side projections remain mixed. OPEC is expected to resume supply hikes in April, and the Energy Agency has reiterated a supply surplus outlook for 2026, which could limit sustained upside in oil prices.