How much will US have to pay for Trump's war on Iran?

Donald Trump may have launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran with an armada of missiles and bravado, but its impact on the American wallet is likely to be of epic proportions as well. With Iran showing considerable resilience, despite the loss of its Supreme Leader, the war is likely to drag on for at least four weeks, Trump has predicted. Early estimates suggest the Iran conflict could drain up to $210 billion (Rs 17.4 lakh crore) from the US economy, according to Kent Smetters, one of America's top economic experts.

To put it in context, it is nearly three times India's annual defence budget of 2025, which was Rs 6.81 lakh crore. It is also around 6% of India's GDP.

THE PRICE TAG OF IRAN WAR

In fact, just direct military costs alone, including equipment losses and replacement of munitions, are expected to be around $65 billion (Rs 5.4 lakh crore). This is four times India's annual health budget. Smetters said it could go up to as much as $95 billion, depending on how long the war lasts and how far it escalates.

The US has already lost three F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jets in Kuwait in an apparent "friendly fire incident" on Monday. Introduced in 1998, one F-15E jet then costed $31.1 million. The price today will be considerably higher.

"If the war lasts more than two months, then this number goes up," Smetters told Fortune.

Moreover, Trump has also left the door open to the deployment of ground forces -- a move that will only inflate costs.

BROADER ECONOMIC IMPLICATION

Apart from expenditures on the battlefield, the broader economic fallout is likely to be massive. The conflict is already widening by the hour, drawing in other Gulf countries as Iran continues to pound US military bases in the region.

Disruptions to trade and energy markets will lead to an additional $115 billion loss to the US economy, Smetters, who director of the Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM), further predicted.

Oil and gas prices have already surged as retaliation by Iran forced shutdowns of oil and gas facilities across the region and disrupted shipping in the crucial Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil supply passes.

In fact, even before the US fired its first missile on Saturday, the massive pre-war military build-up had already cost US taxpayers an estimated $630 million (Rs 5,230 crore), Elaine McCusker, a former senior Pentagon official, told the Wall Street Journal. It included the deployment of more than a dozen Navy ships and over 100 aircraft to the Middle East.

DAY 1 BILL: $779 MILLION

In fact, the first 24 hours of the US's offensive against Iran drained it of around $779 million (Rs 6,466 crore), or about 0.1% of the entire 2026 US defence budget.

What added to the bill is the massive deployment that included B-2 stealth bombers, F-22, F-35, and F-16 fighter jets, and EA-18G electronic warfare planes. The deployment of the B-2 bombers, known as bunker busters, alone accounted for an estimated $30.2 million, based on flight hours and maintenance costs.

MQ-9 Reaper drones, nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, guided-missile destroyers, and Patriot and THAAD missile defence systems were also deployed.

The burgeoning price tag has also put pressure on Trump at home amid a cost-of-living crisis and inflation.

A survey by Reuters/Ipsos, conducted over the weekend, found that only one in four Americans supported the strikes on Iran --an early sign that public backing is eroding faster than the war chest.

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