Gold prices could hit $3,500 per ounce by May-end, says analyst

James Anderson, Senior Market Analyst at SD Bullion, said gold prices could rise to nearly $3,500 an ounce by end-May, but if that happens, a pullback to around $3,000 or lower may follow.

Gold prices in India went up for the straight second day on April 17, reaching a new all-time high of ₹95,935 per 10 grams, a rise of ₹274 due to strong demand in the market.

Globally, gold futures hit a new record of $3,371.89 per ounce in New York before slipping slightly to $3,340.61 per ounce.

Gold’s recent rally, Anderson noted, isn’t just about short-term momentum — it reflects a deeper, long-term shift in how central banks are managing their reserves.

“Since 2022, 2023, 2024, central banks, especially emerging markets central banks, have been buying gold at record volume,” he added.

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Highlighting the historical scale of these purchases, Anderson added that this shows that central banks are shifting away from holding government bonds and instead putting more of their wealth into physical gold.

He calls this a "phase transition" — meaning it’s a big, long-term shift, not just a short-term trend. Central banks may be returning to the old strategy of keeping 30–40% of their wealth in gold.

He noted that gold’s 200-day moving average is currently near $2,700, suggesting a potential interim peak followed by a decline during the North American summer.

“My hunch is that this summer, we will see that one more test below, and it's very common in the bullion bull market for gold to retest its 200-day moving average,” he said.

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