Gautam Shah: Nifty to stay in 23,500–24,600 band; focus shifts to mid, small caps

Gautam Shah, Founder, Goldilocks Global Research, expects the Nifty to remain range-bound between 23,500 and 24,600, signalling a consolidation phase after the recent rally. “We go back to normal business,” Shah said, adding that earnings, consumption trends, artificial intelligence (AI) disruption and continued foreign institutional investors (FII) selling will drive markets from here.

He also flagged crude oil as a key constraint, with elevated prices likely to cap upside and trigger selling pressure at higher levels.

Despite this, Shah said domestic liquidity remains strong and continues to support markets, even as foreign flows stay weak.

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He pointed out that leadership is shifting away from large caps, with limited contribution from heavyweights like IT and Reliance, making it difficult for benchmark indices to sustain a sharp rally.

Gautam Shah said recent gains across global and domestic markets indicate that both geopolitical risks and the possibility of a resolution are already priced in.

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“The worst of the geopolitical news flow… could already be in the price,” he said, noting that markets have rallied sharply over the past few weeks and are now showing limited reaction to fresh developments.

On strategy, Shah said opportunities lie in mid, small and micro caps, which have already seen strong momentum and could continue to outperform. “The real opportunity… is microcaps, smallcaps and midcaps,” he said.

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He highlighted PSU, metals, energy, capital goods and real estate as key sectors, with energy and power emerging as a dominant theme. He also advised focusing on areas with lower foreign ownership, stating be in stocks and sectors where FII selling is limited, signalling a shift towards domestic-driven segments.

He said crude prices are likely to stay elevated, with a base around $80 per barrel and a ceiling of $110–$115 per barrel. He added that the earlier range of $65–$70 per barrel has now shifted higher. On metals, he said gold and silver have stabilised after a correction and could move higher, with gold seen at $5,200–5,300 per ounce and silver near $100 per ounce, advising investors to stay invested.

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