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To be sure, the Democrats will have the security of a United States Supreme Court judgment of February, which struck down the President's use of emergency powers to impose tariffs on trading partners
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India-US trade relations remain in focus amid discussions over tariffs, a bilateral trade deal and immigration policies
Business Standard Editorial Comment
3 min read
Last Updated :
Nov 09 2026 | 10:20 PM
IST
With the Democrats set to take control of Congress in January next year, there is some anticipation that India can expect greater stability and better visibility in dealing with a range of issues impacting Indo-United States relations, chief among them being the long-stalled trade deal, immigration, and the stringent H1B visa regime. Such hopes are not entirely misplaced, although the President retains, and is likely to wield, the considerable executive powers at his disposal for the remaining two years of his term. Beyond these specifics, however, any optimism must be tempered by the realities of political outlooks.
Though the Democrats have not been India’s natural allies in the past, the nation looks forward to the prospect of Congress exerting a more stable influence on tariffs, shielding countries, including India, from Trumpian unpredictability. To be sure, the Democrats will have the security of a United States (US) Supreme Court judgment of February, which struck down the President’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs on trading partners. But the framework for an interim trade agreement between the US and India, which the two sides decided in February, is yet to yield a formal trade deal that has been in the works since February 2025. Since then, tensions erupted over Russian oil purchases, which caused Mr Trump to impose additional tariffs on India until the verdict of the Supreme Court; fresh tensions over tariffs under a different law over alleged overcapacity and the use of forced labour further vitiated relations. US purchases of Russian diesel to cool domestic gasoline prices also negated Washington’s objections to India’s oil deals with Russia.
Hopes of a speedy conclusion of a trade deal still depend on Mr Trump’s priorities. Even assuming his administration chooses to give India precedence over larger and more consequential trade partners such as China, with whom Washington has signed a temporary trade truce and framework agreement, or Canada, where a tariff dispute is yet to be sorted, Congress could become a potential hurdle. Although all trade deals don’t have to be approved by Congress, it could still question executive decisions and scrutinise such deals under its broad oversight powers. While moderate Democrats still dominate both the Houses, the unprecedented success of the party’s left caucus — with its uber-focus on egalitarian and secular ideals and pro-Palestinian inclination — is likely to influence the direction of policy. In that respect, India’s domestic politics and policies, along with its close alliance with Israel, could be open to greater scrutiny.
The same sociopolitical factors could influence the Democrats’ approach to the H1B-visa programme. Congress sets the statutory caps and limits for the programme. Though the Democrats have been vocal in opposing the enhanced $100,000 fee for the H1B visa (now temporarily blocked by the courts), petitions for relaxation cannot be taken for granted, given that Indians account for over 70 per cent of the H1B applicants and approvals. Overall, the Democrats’ approach to immigration can be expected to mark a significant softening over the current hardline approach under Mr Trump. But given that immigration remains a bipartisan concern, India may not be able to assume significant gains under a Democrat-led Congress.
