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As prediction market trading volume booms, Truist analysts say there could be an unlikely source behind the surge.
Analyst Barry Jonas wrote this week that 18- to 20-year-olds, who are too young to gamble legally in most states, could be contributing significantly to the growth of prediction markets.
Specifically, data from HoldCrunch, founded by a former FanDuel executive, shows prediction platform Kalshi is taking more trades on college football than on NFL and NBA. While non-college students could still wager on college results, of course, the trend could offer a clue into the demographics of prediction platform users.
HoldCrunch analyzes the data on an "OSB-equivalent handle" rather than on volumes alone.
During the week ended Jan. 4, Kalshi's college football handle hit its highest percentage of total at 32%, the prediction platform said. The NFL accounted for 24% of total wagers, and the NBA represented 22%. The tide has been shifting in that direction since October, according to Kalshi.
Prediction markets — in which users can bet on the outcomes of events in everything from politics and world news to pop culture and sports — have skyrocketed in popularity with the help of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
They're quickly filling a gap in the market in states where online sports betting is not legal. And in states where it is legal, online sporting betting is often limited to those 21 years or older. Kalshi and Polymarket are open to anyone 18 or older, with some state-by-state exceptions for sports and other certain trades.
"It's clear that these new offerings are having an impact on sports bettor behavior," Jonas wrote.
NCAA President Charlie Baker wrote this week to the Commodities and Futures Trading Commission, which regulates prediction markets, asking the agency to remove college sports from options to trade until more safeguards are in place.
Juice Reel, an app that allows sports gamblers to track wagers and provides analysis of wagering and trading activity, found higher uptake of prediction markets in states where sports betting isn't legal.
According to Juice Reel, 9% of its California customers have connected prediction accounts, the most of any other state. Just over 6% of Juice Reel's Texas customers have linked prediction market accounts. Neither California nor Texas offers legal, licensed sports betting.
Curiously, New York, which has legal online sports betting, ranks second on Juice Reel in customers who have connected prediction accounts (6.8%), perhaps because of the concentration of financial traders accustomed to trading futures, options and other volatile financial derivatives. Truist's analysts hypothesize 18- to 20-year-olds could be fueling the predictions action in the state, too.
Residents of both New York and California demonstrate a notable propensity for gambling outside the bounds of regulated sportsbooks. New York charges a tax of 51% on sportsbooks, but not on sweeps, daily fantasy, bookie accounts and offshore sportsbooks. And those alternate platforms get 40% of the overall handle, or money wagered, from the Juice Reel customers.
In part, that's because gamblers who really know what they're doing can't bet big on platforms like DraftKings or FanDuel.
"Some of the biggest and best bettors are going to prediction markets because they're limited to smaller bets by the sportsbooks," Juice Reel's founder Ricky Gold told CNBC.
Fully 70% of the bets tracked by Juice Reel are in regulated sportsbooks, but they account for only 38% of the handle. By contrast, predictions account for only 1% of the number of bets, but 13% of the handle.
"Prediction markets amplify bettor skill and variance," Truist's Jonas concluded, adding they "show substantially larger downside for low-wallet users and substantially higher upside for high-wallet users."
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship.
