Bharti Hexacom may face tariff hike delay risks but Jefferies 'bull case' projects 69% upside

Shares of Bharti Hexacom Ltd. are trading with gains on Wednesday, March 18, extending their winning streak for the third consecutive session.

Despite the recent uptick, the stock remains under pressure and is down about 16% so far in calendar year 2026, underperforming the benchmark Nifty 50, which has declined around 5% over the same period.

The weakness has been driven by concerns over delays in tariff hikes and earnings per share estimate cuts of 4-5% for financial years 2027 and 2028.

Global brokerage firm Jefferies has maintained a 'Buy' rating on the stock, with a revised price target of ₹1,880 per share, implying a potential upside of about 27% from current levels.

The target is based on a valuation of 14 times enterprise value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA). The brokerage had earlier set a higher price target of ₹2,110.

Jefferies outlines multiple scenarios for the stock. In a bullish case, the price could rise to ₹2,510, implying an upside of nearly 69%, assuming cumulative tariff hikes of 30% over FY27 and FY28.

In a downside scenario, the stock could fall to ₹1,270, indicating a potential decline of about 14%, in the absence of any tariff hikes during the same period.

The brokerage believes Bharti Hexacom remains one of the best plays on India's tariff repair story and sees the risk-reward as attractive.

However, Jefferies expects a lower probability of a headline tariff hike by June 2026, citing risks from the ongoing Middle East crisis, which could push up inflation and limit the ability of telecom operators to increase tariffs.

Factoring in these risks, the brokerage has built in a single tariff hike of 15% in December 2026 over the financial years 2026 to 2028 period.

It has also cut its consensus earnings estimates by 4-5% for FY27 and FY28 during the current year.

Among 13 analysts tracking the stock, eight have a 'Buy' rating, two recommend 'Hold', and three have a 'Sell' rating.

Shares of Bharti Hexacom Ltd. are currently trading 1.09% higher at ₹1,547.70. The stock has declined about 15% so far in 2026.

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